The Hang Seng Theory did not really happen, i am predicting on November Crash but it did not happen but only a major correction about 20%.
No panic sell, no cheap stocks, and the most impressive things is klse did not follow the trend to go down.
So, i guess i just need to keep most of the cash and finding good stocks for trading purpose.
As i mentioned before, Maybulk at 4.50 is definitely attracting me. I am still waiting for that price. When it will come? i believe soon, klse seems like do not lost the link with outside world, seem very weird..
Friday, November 30, 2007
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
A funny News
This Article was written and posted at Sin Chew:
風光一時的大馬電子電器業，近來表現疲弱，因向來賴以生存的美國市場因經濟放緩而減少需求，加上全球電子和電器領域還未走出下跌循環期，前景不樂觀。
電子電器業今日競爭激烈，業者如果不積極為產品增值，會導致長期競爭力削弱，在國際市場更難出頭。
對研發產品冷淡是競爭力下跌的致命傷，打進國際的大馬品牌，想讓人叫出口的名字都沒有。日本和韓國不用說，連中國都憑聯想、海爾和TCL等大品牌在國際打響知名度。
中國雙電產品上世紀90年代起步，目前已發展至數碼化和智能化，產品的技術顯著提升，國際競爭力後起直追起，這樣的成就，離不開業者的研發。
大馬經濟目前有雙油支撐，近期雙油價格飆至歷史新高，抵銷了雙電出口低迷的部份衝擊。但任何產品都有下跌循環期，研發提升附加價值才是王道。
研發農基原產品計劃，仍然由政府主導，例如原棕油附加產品研發由大馬棕油局撐起。儘管研發成績不俗，但產品打入國際市場能力仍有待加強。
This portion worth a look:
一位大馬商家前往中國南寧參觀東盟博覽會，大馬館場面冷清，人氣明顯不如其他成員。大馬館由原棕油加工製成的日常食品和用品打頭陣，即健康更符合環保理念，何況中國是原棕油進口大國，怎會落得門可羅雀的冷清場面，原來問題出在大馬館職員不懂華語，只能用英語溝通。
反觀泰國、越南和寮國館以民俗產品掛帥，但肯花錢聘請當地學生促銷，消除了語言上的障礙，產品看頭雖然不如大馬，卻吸引了大批參觀人潮。
大馬人以多語言能力見稱，但到消費力強大的中國參展，竟派出不諳華語的職員，試問大馬原棕油加工產品再好，又怎吸引消費者和買家，不只產品要增值，業者和負責促銷的部門更要增值。
Malaysia Chinese normally can communicate in Chinese, and when Malaysia government send people there to explore some business opportunity , they sent those people who do not understand Chinese and cannot communicate in Chinese as well. This seems like a joke. Even Thailand, Vietnam and Laos know this simple theory.
風光一時的大馬電子電器業，近來表現疲弱，因向來賴以生存的美國市場因經濟放緩而減少需求，加上全球電子和電器領域還未走出下跌循環期，前景不樂觀。
電子電器業今日競爭激烈，業者如果不積極為產品增值，會導致長期競爭力削弱，在國際市場更難出頭。
對研發產品冷淡是競爭力下跌的致命傷，打進國際的大馬品牌，想讓人叫出口的名字都沒有。日本和韓國不用說，連中國都憑聯想、海爾和TCL等大品牌在國際打響知名度。
中國雙電產品上世紀90年代起步，目前已發展至數碼化和智能化，產品的技術顯著提升，國際競爭力後起直追起，這樣的成就，離不開業者的研發。
大馬經濟目前有雙油支撐，近期雙油價格飆至歷史新高，抵銷了雙電出口低迷的部份衝擊。但任何產品都有下跌循環期，研發提升附加價值才是王道。
研發農基原產品計劃，仍然由政府主導，例如原棕油附加產品研發由大馬棕油局撐起。儘管研發成績不俗，但產品打入國際市場能力仍有待加強。
This portion worth a look:
一位大馬商家前往中國南寧參觀東盟博覽會，大馬館場面冷清，人氣明顯不如其他成員。大馬館由原棕油加工製成的日常食品和用品打頭陣，即健康更符合環保理念，何況中國是原棕油進口大國，怎會落得門可羅雀的冷清場面，原來問題出在大馬館職員不懂華語，只能用英語溝通。
反觀泰國、越南和寮國館以民俗產品掛帥，但肯花錢聘請當地學生促銷，消除了語言上的障礙，產品看頭雖然不如大馬，卻吸引了大批參觀人潮。
大馬人以多語言能力見稱，但到消費力強大的中國參展，竟派出不諳華語的職員，試問大馬原棕油加工產品再好，又怎吸引消費者和買家，不只產品要增值，業者和負責促銷的部門更要增值。
Malaysia Chinese normally can communicate in Chinese, and when Malaysia government send people there to explore some business opportunity , they sent those people who do not understand Chinese and cannot communicate in Chinese as well. This seems like a joke. Even Thailand, Vietnam and Laos know this simple theory.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Maybulk Latest Quarter Report
Maybulk Performance review: ( from quarter report)
Group revenue for the nine months to September 2007 is RM417.2million. This is a 25% increase compared to the previousyear’s nine month revenue of RM333.6million.
On a segmental basis, revenue from the dry bulk segment for the period ending 30 September 2007 is up RM59.8 millionshowing a 23% improvement against the corresponding period in 2006. Whilst total hire days are reduced due to disposal of vessels, the strong freight market has more than compensated for the reduced hire days. The revenue for the tanker segment is up RM21.7million reflecting a 31% improvement compared to that of September 2006 boosted by increased hire days due to the delivery of 3 new tankers in 2007.
Profit after tax for the nine months to September 2007 is RM417.9 million - a 94% increase compared to the nine months ofSeptember 2006. This is due to strong dry bulk market, the addition of the new tankers and the RM133.5 million gains (last yearnone) on disposal of vessels.
From above statement, i am assuming that Maybulk management has been doing terrific job as they have sold another ship and netting a gain of RM28M, the price of the ship has been going up due to the increase of BDI.(Sold during price of ship going high and buy back again durng price of ship going down). After BDI hitting high on November with more than 11000, it has drop to 9897 for now. ( As speculator starts taking profit).
This has trigger the fall of Maybulk price from 5.20 high to 4.76 currently. Some of the Equity research firm has set a TP for Maybulk with RM4. Although the earning has been improved, but the profit earning did not meet their forecast, so they trigger sold for this counter. Current EPS stood at 54sen, with price at 4.76, PE = 8, excluding profit for the sales of ship, which is around RM133.5 million gains. Stripping this gain off, the net profit would be only 255millions, divided by 1000 m shares, leading to 36.6sen core profit from shipping line, Thus the Pe would be around 13. ( Please be reminded that they cannot always sell ship to earn so it would consider a one off gain and should not be calculated in the net PE )
a PE 13 would be a fair value to me considering the cash that Maybulk contains now. A good dividend yield as high as 7.2% can be expected with current price. A RM4.50 is definitely a buy. I will wait for that price. ( i have sold maybulk at price 4.6, 4.78 and 5.05 last time )
Group revenue for the nine months to September 2007 is RM417.2million. This is a 25% increase compared to the previousyear’s nine month revenue of RM333.6million.
On a segmental basis, revenue from the dry bulk segment for the period ending 30 September 2007 is up RM59.8 millionshowing a 23% improvement against the corresponding period in 2006. Whilst total hire days are reduced due to disposal of vessels, the strong freight market has more than compensated for the reduced hire days. The revenue for the tanker segment is up RM21.7million reflecting a 31% improvement compared to that of September 2006 boosted by increased hire days due to the delivery of 3 new tankers in 2007.
Profit after tax for the nine months to September 2007 is RM417.9 million - a 94% increase compared to the nine months ofSeptember 2006. This is due to strong dry bulk market, the addition of the new tankers and the RM133.5 million gains (last yearnone) on disposal of vessels.
From above statement, i am assuming that Maybulk management has been doing terrific job as they have sold another ship and netting a gain of RM28M, the price of the ship has been going up due to the increase of BDI.(Sold during price of ship going high and buy back again durng price of ship going down). After BDI hitting high on November with more than 11000, it has drop to 9897 for now. ( As speculator starts taking profit).
This has trigger the fall of Maybulk price from 5.20 high to 4.76 currently. Some of the Equity research firm has set a TP for Maybulk with RM4. Although the earning has been improved, but the profit earning did not meet their forecast, so they trigger sold for this counter. Current EPS stood at 54sen, with price at 4.76, PE = 8, excluding profit for the sales of ship, which is around RM133.5 million gains. Stripping this gain off, the net profit would be only 255millions, divided by 1000 m shares, leading to 36.6sen core profit from shipping line, Thus the Pe would be around 13. ( Please be reminded that they cannot always sell ship to earn so it would consider a one off gain and should not be calculated in the net PE )
a PE 13 would be a fair value to me considering the cash that Maybulk contains now. A good dividend yield as high as 7.2% can be expected with current price. A RM4.50 is definitely a buy. I will wait for that price. ( i have sold maybulk at price 4.6, 4.78 and 5.05 last time )
Monday, November 26, 2007
New Planning
After analysis STI (Straits Time Index , Singapore market), i have thinking to switch large portion of my capital to invest in overseas.
This is because:
I would like to set a fund with 10k ringgit wth 10k sing dollar ( aka 23k ringgit) and i would want them to compete each other.
Singapore has been a popular market for foreign fund manager and the counter listed there deserve higher PE. Thats while Robert Kuok decided to merge the plantation into the Wilmar and now Wilmar has been doubled since then.
Wish me luck. I am thinking Singapore dollar will appreciating again in future against ringgit. Not quite confident with Malaysia economy outlook in future, maybe our briliant government will do something to improve the economic in future.
I will try to make this happen at the beginning of year 2008 and new portfolio will be prepared again.
This is because:
I would like to set a fund with 10k ringgit wth 10k sing dollar ( aka 23k ringgit) and i would want them to compete each other.
Singapore has been a popular market for foreign fund manager and the counter listed there deserve higher PE. Thats while Robert Kuok decided to merge the plantation into the Wilmar and now Wilmar has been doubled since then.
Wish me luck. I am thinking Singapore dollar will appreciating again in future against ringgit. Not quite confident with Malaysia economy outlook in future, maybe our briliant government will do something to improve the economic in future.
I will try to make this happen at the beginning of year 2008 and new portfolio will be prepared again.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Pjdev Latest Quarter Report analysis
End of month November is definitely busiest month since the quarter report of companies have come out.
I have gone through the Pjdev Quarter report and here is some of the analysis:
Net profit 14.63 milllions compare to 2007 Q1 6.44 millions is definetely a improvement. But compare to previous quarter , 16.48millions, is still consider ok without much drop. Property development cost has gone up to 260 millions compare to previous quarter 208 millions will be a good sign as i assume they are having more projects going on. ( Not cost incremental please).
However, for long term debt has gone from 93.8 millions to 341.30 millions which is the setback as this means company is taking more loans for more aggresive expansion. As this company has not really much cash (only 42.47 millions) , so this means the finance cost will be going up in future and affecting the net profit.
For current account payable has been going down to 16.65 millions from 166.98millions previous quarter as they have been shifting to the long term payment.
With dividend 5 sen less tax going to be paid on January, translating to the 4.2% of net dividend yield, this counter seems like a very "good deal" to me. However, i still prefer with price below 0.8 as this counter did not serve as a defensive counter during volatile market.
Eyes on property : Pjdev, Plenitude, Mahsing
Property stock been analysis: Pjdev, Keladi, Plenitude
Next one: Mahsing, Sunway, Hunza Property, Metrok.
I have gone through the Pjdev Quarter report and here is some of the analysis:
Net profit 14.63 milllions compare to 2007 Q1 6.44 millions is definetely a improvement. But compare to previous quarter , 16.48millions, is still consider ok without much drop. Property development cost has gone up to 260 millions compare to previous quarter 208 millions will be a good sign as i assume they are having more projects going on. ( Not cost incremental please).
However, for long term debt has gone from 93.8 millions to 341.30 millions which is the setback as this means company is taking more loans for more aggresive expansion. As this company has not really much cash (only 42.47 millions) , so this means the finance cost will be going up in future and affecting the net profit.
For current account payable has been going down to 16.65 millions from 166.98millions previous quarter as they have been shifting to the long term payment.
With dividend 5 sen less tax going to be paid on January, translating to the 4.2% of net dividend yield, this counter seems like a very "good deal" to me. However, i still prefer with price below 0.8 as this counter did not serve as a defensive counter during volatile market.
Eyes on property : Pjdev, Plenitude, Mahsing
Property stock been analysis: Pjdev, Keladi, Plenitude
Next one: Mahsing, Sunway, Hunza Property, Metrok.
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