Today trading

Buy in Petra Energy 2000 shares @ 3.32 and kinsteel 2900 shares @ 1.34.

Kinsteel

Last few days i saw a good news:

The China Securities Journal had reported that China plans to raise its export duties on some steelproducts w.e.f. 1 Jan 2008. Citing some steel company officials, it was reported that export tariff onsteel billets would be raised to 25% from the current 15%. In addition, export duties on long andstrip steel products, and welded tubes would also be raised to 15% from the current level of 0%-10% respectively. China, the world's largest steel producer, had earlier scrapped its 13% exportrebate (VAT) on carbon steel welded tubes as of 1 July 2007. The export tariffs increases wouldcome amid increasing overseas dumping charges against China's massive steel exports at thesame time cut energy consumption and pollutant emissions.

With less steel export to here, we would expect the share price of steel might going on, who would benefit from this act? Sure is local steel maker, like Masteel(in over bought region), ornasteel, and not forgeting would be Kinsteel.

Kinsteel latest Quarter report shows EPS 68sen , and Q1 and Q2 are 43sen and 45sen respectively, assuming better result at Q4 EPS 70sen year end, the PE is stood at (1.39/2.26) = 5.7 , which is almost in par with Masteel and Ornasteel PE.

However, giving it high production and also, fund manager favourite, this counter indeed is a theme play counter. With the high growth in EPS, this counter might deserving PE 7 and above.

I would buy in with 5k allocated with this counter.

ECMlibra and Airasia

Thanks Sam again for providing such good counter on ECMlibra.

Based on PE 10++ and politic link counter ( Why political link?
check this out : http://www.malaysia-today.net/blog2006/corridors.php?itemid=6185 ), this counter definetely is a good buy with recent high volume.

and also, the yesterday announcement:

ELAB had on 1 December 2005 obtained its shareholders’ approval for the ESOS, the details of which are set out in the Company’s Circular to Shareholders dated 9 November 2005. The effective date of implementation of the ESOS is on 27 December 2007. Pursuant thereto and in accordance with the provisions of the bye-laws of the ESOS, the Options Committee has on 27 December 2007 granted options, (subject to shareholders’ approval for the specific allotment) to the Directors as detailed in Appendix I (“collectively referred to as the Interested Directors”) at an exercise price of RM1.00 per Share (as defined below)(“Offer”).

wow, ESOS RM1.00, now they are telling you this share worth RM1 and more. if i can buy current price 0.92, i would love to purchase more shares.

And for Airasia, i have seen large volume of trading on past few days, with price drop from 1.70 until 1.60, which means there are two condition, first would be foreign fund is selling in large volume and also at the same time some other foreign fund is buying in. ( No individual share holder can hold such large lots of sell pressure). Or the share holders behind is playing with the volume and share price.

I plan to hold for 2 more weeks before i decide my next step. Or consider cut loss at 1.55.

today Trading

Buy Airasia 3000 shares @ 1.63 and buy ECMlibra 4000 shares @ 0.86 and 2000
shares @ 0.865

Bought Ecmlibra following Sam (Please refer to samgang.blogspot.com) and airasia for trading play purpose.

Happy New Year and Merry Christmas!

Happy New Year and Merry Christmas!

I have decide to put some capital to venture into Singapore SGX Market.

The initial capital would be 4k sing dollar.

While Malaysia market capital would be 23400k. (Compare to previous 26.1k cash).

The deducted amount would be added into 4k SGX portfolio.

Total Ringgit invest would be 32.6k. (Include SGX and KLSE)

This has exceeded my target to have 30k investment capital before 2008.

And also, the next target would be 100k investment capital before 2010.

For this month only 2 small transactions have being done. It would be Melati 1000 shares @1.49 and Rcecap 2000 shares @ 0.86.

Let's hope everyone earn big money on years 2008.

Today trading

Bought Melati @ 1.49 with 1000 shares cost RM1490.

I plan to put more money in Melati.

But due to external factor like China and Dow Jones not stable, i will increase slowly.

Today Trading

Buy RCECAP at 2000 shares @ 0.86 at last minutes, Cost RM1720.

RCECAP

What's so special with RCECAP?

RCE Cap provides personal loans to civil servants. Loans are disbursed to cooperative members to buy cars, electrical appliances,furniture and others. Repayment is by way of direct salary deduction facilitated by ANGKASA.

Here is how it looks like :

Base on Quarter Report, their main income would be loan financing , at 2004 loan financing revenue is 18 millions and net profit is 11.4 millions, 2005 is 33.94 millions with 16.339 millions, 2006 is 53.76 mils with 21.378mils, and 2007 is 95 millions with 46mils. We can see that margin of this business is so high that every revenue increase will directly contribute to the net profit. The margin can be seen ranged from 30%-50%.

At current price 0.89, the PE is around 9, which is considerably cheap to me. This stocks has been soared from 0.3x to current price within 1 years, which make you a handsome profit with over 300% if you bought at last year.

What's make this stock more attrative would be they are charging those lender at 15.90% to 16.70% p.a . Wow, they are charging like credit card, and some more they salary will be automatically deducted to pay the loan. The loan would be ranged from 7 years to 10 years.

Other News:

RCE is looking to establish a finance company with Southern BankVietnam (SBV). The firm signed an MOU with SBV to form a JV companyfor the application of licenses to set up a non-bank credit institution. RCE’scost of investment is an estimated US$5.7m (RM19.6m) for a 30% stake inthe venture, while SBV will take an 11% stake and the remainingshareholdings taken up by other strategic partners. We expect a formal agreement to be signed by end-2007 and the first branch to be set up in mid-2008.

Another thing would be they are eyeing MBSB, which may allow RCE to grow into the biggest non regularised financial institution.Currently they are getting money by either lending from financial bank or either by issuing bond, where ranging from 3%-10% and loan to the lender. If they managed to get the MBSB from EPF, that would be a big boost to the fundamental of company as MBSB is licensed to take deposits. Imagine, the cost of getting money is decreasing from 10% to 3.75% or lower, i would not be surprise if they managed to acquire share in MBSB and analysis report would give a "Buy" with Price RM2.

I will buy this counter if the price is good for me. I believe i still have chance to buy with price lower than 0.89.

Mahsing Quarter Report Analysis

Mahsing Latest Quarter has been exciting one, they have managed to sustain the excellent earning result.

With 3Q 2007, the eps stood at 0.10 eps, assuming Q4 with 0.4 sen ( which is better than previous 3 Q), we have around 0.14eps, with current price RM1.90, the PE stood at 13.57,to me the price is fairly value, unless there are some kind of good news like Middle East investor is eyeing on Mahsing stakes. The best price we can is on August 17 where we can buy Mahsing at RM1.60.

The most special parts of Mahsing is they did not adopt buy land and hold and develop in future. They just bought the land they interested and develop it. This kind of strategy cause you wont find any value on "Land held for properties development" which you can often see on other companies annual report.

This strategy prove to be success one and surely they wont mind to buy land at higher price as the brand "Mahsing" would make the property they sold worth higher value.

Hang Seng November Index

PE : 22.15
Dividend Yield: 1.94

To me, Hang Seng still in danger zone, and i can see they lack the volume and energy to push the stocks again, maybe they are waiting for FED announcement?

I still want to wait and see, except buying Maybulk at 4.50.

Its December

The Hang Seng Theory did not really happen, i am predicting on November Crash but it did not happen but only a major correction about 20%.

No panic sell, no cheap stocks, and the most impressive things is klse did not follow the trend to go down.

So, i guess i just need to keep most of the cash and finding good stocks for trading purpose.

As i mentioned before, Maybulk at 4.50 is definitely attracting me. I am still waiting for that price. When it will come? i believe soon, klse seems like do not lost the link with outside world, seem very weird..

A funny News

This Article was written and posted at Sin Chew:


風光一時的大馬電子電器業，近來表現疲弱，因向來賴以生存的美國市場因經濟放緩而減少需求，加上全球電子和電器領域還未走出下跌循環期，前景不樂觀。
電子電器業今日競爭激烈，業者如果不積極為產品增值，會導致長期競爭力削弱，在國際市場更難出頭。

對研發產品冷淡是競爭力下跌的致命傷，打進國際的大馬品牌，想讓人叫出口的名字都沒有。日本和韓國不用說，連中國都憑聯想、海爾和TCL等大品牌在國際打響知名度。
中國雙電產品上世紀90年代起步，目前已發展至數碼化和智能化，產品的技術顯著提升，國際競爭力後起直追起，這樣的成就，離不開業者的研發。

大馬經濟目前有雙油支撐，近期雙油價格飆至歷史新高，抵銷了雙電出口低迷的部份衝擊。但任何產品都有下跌循環期，研發提升附加價值才是王道。

研發農基原產品計劃，仍然由政府主導，例如原棕油附加產品研發由大馬棕油局撐起。儘管研發成績不俗，但產品打入國際市場能力仍有待加強。

This portion worth a look:

一位大馬商家前往中國南寧參觀東盟博覽會，大馬館場面冷清，人氣明顯不如其他成員。大馬館由原棕油加工製成的日常食品和用品打頭陣，即健康更符合環保理念，何況中國是原棕油進口大國，怎會落得門可羅雀的冷清場面，原來問題出在大馬館職員不懂華語，只能用英語溝通。

反觀泰國、越南和寮國館以民俗產品掛帥，但肯花錢聘請當地學生促銷，消除了語言上的障礙，產品看頭雖然不如大馬，卻吸引了大批參觀人潮。
大馬人以多語言能力見稱，但到消費力強大的中國參展，竟派出不諳華語的職員，試問大馬原棕油加工產品再好，又怎吸引消費者和買家，不只產品要增值，業者和負責促銷的部門更要增值。

Malaysia Chinese normally can communicate in Chinese, and when Malaysia government send people there to explore some business opportunity , they sent those people who do not understand Chinese and cannot communicate in Chinese as well. This seems like a joke. Even Thailand, Vietnam and Laos know this simple theory.

Maybulk Latest Quarter Report

Maybulk Performance review: ( from quarter report)

Group revenue for the nine months to September 2007 is RM417.2million. This is a 25% increase compared to the previousyear’s nine month revenue of RM333.6million.

On a segmental basis, revenue from the dry bulk segment for the period ending 30 September 2007 is up RM59.8 millionshowing a 23% improvement against the corresponding period in 2006. Whilst total hire days are reduced due to disposal of vessels, the strong freight market has more than compensated for the reduced hire days. The revenue for the tanker segment is up RM21.7million reflecting a 31% improvement compared to that of September 2006 boosted by increased hire days due to the delivery of 3 new tankers in 2007.

Profit after tax for the nine months to September 2007 is RM417.9 million - a 94% increase compared to the nine months ofSeptember 2006. This is due to strong dry bulk market, the addition of the new tankers and the RM133.5 million gains (last yearnone) on disposal of vessels.

From above statement, i am assuming that Maybulk management has been doing terrific job as they have sold another ship and netting a gain of RM28M, the price of the ship has been going up due to the increase of BDI.(Sold during price of ship going high and buy back again durng price of ship going down). After BDI hitting high on November with more than 11000, it has drop to 9897 for now. ( As speculator starts taking profit).

This has trigger the fall of Maybulk price from 5.20 high to 4.76 currently. Some of the Equity research firm has set a TP for Maybulk with RM4. Although the earning has been improved, but the profit earning did not meet their forecast, so they trigger sold for this counter. Current EPS stood at 54sen, with price at 4.76, PE = 8, excluding profit for the sales of ship, which is around RM133.5 million gains. Stripping this gain off, the net profit would be only 255millions, divided by 1000 m shares, leading to 36.6sen core profit from shipping line, Thus the Pe would be around 13. ( Please be reminded that they cannot always sell ship to earn so it would consider a one off gain and should not be calculated in the net PE )

a PE 13 would be a fair value to me considering the cash that Maybulk contains now. A good dividend yield as high as 7.2% can be expected with current price. A RM4.50 is definitely a buy. I will wait for that price. ( i have sold maybulk at price 4.6, 4.78 and 5.05 last time )

New Planning

After analysis STI (Straits Time Index , Singapore market), i have thinking to switch large portion of my capital to invest in overseas.

This is because:
I would like to set a fund with 10k ringgit wth 10k sing dollar ( aka 23k ringgit) and i would want them to compete each other.

Singapore has been a popular market for foreign fund manager and the counter listed there deserve higher PE. Thats while Robert Kuok decided to merge the plantation into the Wilmar and now Wilmar has been doubled since then.

Wish me luck. I am thinking Singapore dollar will appreciating again in future against ringgit. Not quite confident with Malaysia economy outlook in future, maybe our briliant government will do something to improve the economic in future.

I will try to make this happen at the beginning of year 2008 and new portfolio will be prepared again.

Pjdev Latest Quarter Report analysis

End of month November is definitely busiest month since the quarter report of companies have come out.

I have gone through the Pjdev Quarter report and here is some of the analysis:

Net profit 14.63 milllions compare to 2007 Q1 6.44 millions is definetely a improvement. But compare to previous quarter , 16.48millions, is still consider ok without much drop. Property development cost has gone up to 260 millions compare to previous quarter 208 millions will be a good sign as i assume they are having more projects going on. ( Not cost incremental please).

However, for long term debt has gone from 93.8 millions to 341.30 millions which is the setback as this means company is taking more loans for more aggresive expansion. As this company has not really much cash (only 42.47 millions) , so this means the finance cost will be going up in future and affecting the net profit.

For current account payable has been going down to 16.65 millions from 166.98millions previous quarter as they have been shifting to the long term payment.

With dividend 5 sen less tax going to be paid on January, translating to the 4.2% of net dividend yield, this counter seems like a very "good deal" to me. However, i still prefer with price below 0.8 as this counter did not serve as a defensive counter during volatile market.

Eyes on property : Pjdev, Plenitude, Mahsing
Property stock been analysis: Pjdev, Keladi, Plenitude
Next one: Mahsing, Sunway, Hunza Property, Metrok.

Magnum Shareholder - Sell or Not Sell?

PROPOSED PRIVATISATION OF MAGNUM CORPORATION BERHAD (“MCB”)

Check here for more details:

http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/index.jsp

The price offer is RM3.45, wow, dam cheap if compare to the current market price RM3.08, another Maxis privatisation case.

So, Magnum shareholder, you want sell or not?

Plenitude

Talking about property stock, cheap and good, one stock appear on my mind - Plenitude.

The latest quarter report Q1 2008 has been released :

the net profit is 12millions out of 53.33millions sales, compared to the Q1 2007 millions 9.82millions from 42.52 millions sales , which is 22% improvement. ( Compare to Q4 is a major setback as Q4 net profit is 21.34millions)

Take a look on the Property Development Projects - current portion which is 140.8 millions, compare to previous quarter 131.50 millions, which means there is still projects going on, nothing much to worry.

while for long term Property Development Projects is 132 millions compare to the previous quarter 175.30millions, where we can see there is 40 millions gone, as they have been the current portion parts of project, seems we can see that they did not announce other major project recently, so it is normal to see such a drop.

The one that attract my eyes is the cash on hand, which stood at 107 millions, translate into 80 sen cash per share. At current price 2.92, thats consider alot.

By seeing the their project , we have much more confidence as they have project at Sg Petani, Johor IDN , and also kl prime land. ( visit their website http://www.plenitude.com.my/),
we can see that their managing director is the kind of slow but steady as company is having lots of cash 107 millions! and barely little long term debt 8.25millions .

And most importantly, the company is valued at PE ( 2.93/0.42 = 7) , which is obviously very low PE. With NTA RM4, and dividend of 0.115sen, translate to net dividend yield 2.86%, this counter seems like a very value buy. 0.115sen will cause the company to pay 15.5 millions, stripped off a small portion of 107millions.

The reason why this counter is valued at such low PE is due to the slow but steady net profit since 2004, which is 47.34millions on 2004, 49 millions on 2005, 52.4 millions on 2006, 56.46 millions on 2007. Without any major project going on, or any aggresive development, this counter is fairly value at around 8-10. Just hope that the management can pay more dividend if they cannot accumulate any cheap but quality land.

But not forgeting was this counter ever hit RM3.60 at July before retreat to current level RM2.93. I am still searching for property that better than this, maybe Mahsing? you like the picture below? Thats Plenitude Chart.

MPHB privatize Magnum?

MPHB call for suspended trading this morning together with the Magnum. Rumours saying that the MPHB is going to privatize the magnum / or sell the share they have on magnum.

Privitasing Magnum will be a very good benefit for MPHB since they can enjoying the high dividend / special dividend pay out by Magnum.

Theedgedaily has mentioned on one things which is very interesting on last week the edge weekly:

Even though MPHB's share price has appreciated by 17% in the past two months, it appears that the stock is still undervalued. Based on MPHB's closing price last Wednesday of RM2.36 and 954.58 million MPHB shares issued, its market capitalisation is RM2.25 billion. Based on Magnum's closing price of RM3.02 last Wednesday, the market is valuing the company at RM4.37 billion. This means that MPHB's 55.54% stake in Magnum is worth RM2.41 billion, which is more than the market capitalisation of MPHB. This could be another reason investors are keen on MPHB shares — its market value is less than what its stake in Magnum is worth.

So, at that time, if you have purchase MPHB shares, that means you are purchasing all the shares in the magnum and for other business they have you will get for *free*. You are valuing MPHB other business / assets / property as *zero* value.

Lets take a look on the MPHB other business besides Magnum:

On year 2006, MPHB got 24.7 millions net profit from Gaming and leisure, property investment 11millions net profit , securities and broking and dealing 33millions net profit, financial services 25.2 millions and finally is Magnum 118.4 millions. After deducting the finance cost, the profit they earn besides Magnum is 76.2 millions.

So, market is valuing that 118.4 millions net profit but forgot about the 76.2millions net profit they earn from their own business.

Wow, let see what is the share price for MPHB and Magnum when they resume trading.

What to do when market crash?

Here are some history we can take a look:

The crash on October 19, 1987, a date that is also known as Black Monday, was the climactic culmination of a market decline that had begun five days before on October 14th. The DJIA fell 3.81 percent on October 14, followed by another 4.60 percent drop on Friday October 16th. But this was nothing compared to what lay ahead when markets opened on the subsequent Monday. On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrials Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its value in one day. The S&P 500 dropped 20.4%, falling from 282.7 to 225.06

Despite fears of a repeat of the 1930s Depression, the market rallied immediately after the crash, posting a record one-day gain of 102.27 the very next day and 186.64 points on Thursday October 22. It took only two years for the Dow to recover completely; by September of 1989, the market had regained all of the value it had lost in the 1987 crash.

hmm, don't catch the falling knife but you can try your luck after the first few days of market crash? they will recover? maybe can try that.

This was not the first time the market had massive losses followed by a sharp recovery. Here are a few other instances:

Stock Market Crash of 1929 - The Dow falls a total of 23% for October 28 and 29; then makes a sharp 12.84% rebound on the 30th. However, over the next several years the stock market fell dramatically.

October 13 and 16, 1989 - The Dow plunges 190.50 points, or 6.9% on October 13, 1989 then rebounds 88 points on the 16th.

Black Monday, October 19, 1987 and October 20 - The Dow suffers the biggest percentage loss in recorded stock market history on October 19 and initially continues its plunge on the 20th. The markets rally sharply in the afternoon and the Dow posts its first triple-digit gain in its history.

Once market oversold, i think we can go in to catch some cheap fish, the problem is, when is market oversold? Only exp can tell.

China's inflation rate hits 11-year high

October's rate increases to 6.5%, despite efforts to restrain price increases.

BEIJING (AP) -- China's consumer prices rose sharply in October, tying a decade-high monthly inflation rate of 6.5 percent, the government reported Tuesday, adding to pressure for measures to cool a politically sensitive surge in food prices.
Food prices jumped 17.6 percent in October over the same month last year, while the price of pork, China's staple meat, soared 54.9 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The overall October inflation rate was higher than the 6.2 percent reported in September and matched August's 6.5 percent, the highest rate in 11 years.

"We expect more monetary tightening to rein in inflation, including further rate hikes," Lehman Bros. economist Mingchun Sun said in a report to clients.

Inflation has surged in recent months due to double-digit increases in food prices blamed on shortages of pork and other basic goods

More news from here:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/13/news/international/china_inflation.ap/index.htm

Wow, what will China government do to curb this inflation, is 11 years peak. Sorry to say that, it is now the end of Bull run there, i don't think China will allow the bull continue to run, whereby worsen the inflation rate.

The only way is to raise interest rate (or Whatever kind of rate), which will hurt share market badly,

Better stay away from Market for a while first, and after the collapse , then it is time for fishing.

Tomorrow Hang Seng

（香港11日讯）对于中国人民银行昨天突然宣布再度上调人民币存款准备金率零点五个百分点，香港银行界认为，中国为压抑股市及房市过热，相信人行今年内会继续升息及上调存款准备金率。

瑞士EFG私人银行副行政总裁赵善铨认为，由于市场普遍预期在中共十七大后，中国政府会加强宏观调控措施的力度，所以市场不会对人民银行再度上调存款准备金率作出过度反应。 -->-->他又说，由于中国流动资金过剩，加上人民币未能自由浮动，市场未能自然调节，以致宏观调控措施短期未能冷却过热的经济。 他预料今年年底前，人行还会升息一至两次，以遏抑股市及房市的过热情况。

星展银行高级经济师梁兆基表示，目前中国外汇储备及贸易顺差大，人行提高存款准备金是意料中事。 港股料暴跌 不过，香港讯汇证券董事总经理沈振盈认为，这次人行再调高存款准备金率，会对香港及中国股市构成较大的压力，

由于中港股市已进入调整波，估计12日中港股市会借调高准备金率的消息出现恐慌性抛售。 他预期，恆生指数初步支持位于2万7千200点的50天平均线。若以恆指9日收盘报2万8千783.41，估计明天港股会暴跌近1千500点。 中国人民银行昨天下午宣布将于11月26日起，上调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率零点5个百分点，至13.5％的历史最高水平，这是人行今年以来第九次调高存款准备金率。

According to above news, it is telling that Hang Seng going down for another 5-6% tomorrow. We shall see, if it is fall below 20000, it will be the time to go for cheap stock.

TamCorp giving 50 sen special dividend

One of investment banking tell below STORY:

Tamco said planning to pay special dividendTAMCO Corporate Holdings, a unit of Ancom, plans to return as much as 50 sen a share to shareholders,sources close to the company said last week. Business Times understands that a decision on the special dividend was made last Wednesday at a board meeting. Company officials were not immediately available forcomment but an announcement is due to be made soon. Tamco is in the process of selling its switch gearbusiness to India's largest engineering firm Larsen & Toubro Ltd for RM378m. A dividend payment of any kindwould benefit Ancom as it directly owns 40% of Tamco, the source said. Ancom, could raise a further RM100m,via the sale of its industrial chemical unit, housed under Nylex (M). (BT)

hmm, take a look on latest news:
TAMCO CORPORATE HOLDINGS reported that SIEW KA WEI, Director had on Oct 16, 2007 disposed 850,000 shares in the Company at RM1.06 per share.

TAMCO CORPORATE HOLDINGS reported that SIEW KA WEI, Director had on Oct 19, 2007 disposed 496,500 shares in the Company at 93.83 sen per share.

TAMCO CORPORATE HOLDINGS reported that SIEW KA WEI, Director had on Oct 18, 2007 disposed 510,900 shares in the Company at 97.02 sen per share.

What do you think? :)

Hang Seng Down -5%

Today Hang Seng Down -1526 aka 5%. (not crash yet!)

If tonight US want to have fun with Asia stocks, they can just choose to let the DJ down -2% maybe, then we shall see another wave sending Hang Seng further down.

November Crash?

We shall see.

My 100% cash status is enough for me to buy cheap stocks.

中资企业高估值所从何来？

目前中国石油已是中国最大的上市公司，其总市值已达4,400亿美元左右，较其今年盛夏时的水平增长了一倍左右。中国石油在全球上市公司中的排名已升至第二，仅次于排名第一的埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil Corp.)(5,080亿美元)，双方的差距正在迅速收窄。中国石油基于2007年预期每股收益的市盈率超出了20倍，是历史水平的两倍多；相比之下，埃克森美孚的市盈率仅为13倍，而雪佛龙公司(Chevron Corp.)和康菲石油公司(ConocoPhillips)等西方石油企业的市盈率仅为10倍左右。一些分析师和投资者认为，中国石油的股票不应较西方同类企业拥有溢价，他们相信该股被高估了50%甚至更多。

而中国石油这样的高市值中资企业并非绝无仅有。中国最大的煤炭企业中国神华(China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd.)市值约2,000亿美元，远远超出了全球最大的非国有煤炭生产商Peabody Energy。而中国大型钢铁生产企业宝钢股份(Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.)的市值是U.S.Steel的三倍多，虽然它们的年产量差不多。韩国浦项综合制铁公司 (Posco))钢材产量比U.S. Steel还多30%，但浦项制铁的市值只有600亿美元。而且，中、美企业市值存在明显差距不只是资源领域才有的现象。

以金融业为例：中国人寿(China Life Insurance)的市值为2,450亿美元，是大都会保险(MetLife)和保德信金融集团(Prudential Financial)市值的五倍。实在很难为中美资源类公司如此大的市值差距找到合理解释，因为石油不仅是一种可替代的全球性商品，而且煤炭和钢铁也在逐渐朝这个方向演变。

More story can read from here:

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20071029/fea163600.asp?source=channel

This is another warning, China Company has been overvalued. With their PE stood at around 65, which is in past history, the peak before bubble burst. November will be a historical month to be noted.

Today Trading

Sold Masteel 4000 shares @ 1.53 and sold pjdev 6500 shares @ 0.85, has occured some loss on pjdev.

This is to keep the promise of selling before November ( although i sell on 2 Nov ).

The market has been very volatile and i can see market is not strong as previous.

With 100% cash, i am extremely comfortable with the situation right now.

Why i want to sell so urgently?

Because Hang Seng open at 10am, you never know what are their respose with their market on the Dow Jones Plunges nearly 3%, Their market valued at PE 24, which is quite high, as long as foreign investor decide to pull out, you see huge correction/crash on their market.

I do not want to take the bet, The Hang Seng Curse with dividend less than 2% and the PE more than 22? Let's see.

Hang Seng Latest Update - October Month

October Month:
PE -24.26
Dividend yield - 1.77

Remember the previous post i mentioned? according to the theory, the market crash shall happen on November month.

Let's see, i am going to sell Masteel and Pjdev as long as masteel > 1.6 and Pjdev > 0.925, just hope there is some one willing to paid that price.

Previous post:
I have notice one IMPORTANT things, with PE more than 20 and dividend yield less than or equal 2% at certain month, then market will be collapse/ or having big correction after that particular months.

This rules have been proven on 1973, 1987, 1994, 2000 year where they only have big bull run with low dividend yield.

Hang Seng has enter into November with October month PE more than 20 and and dividend yield less than 2%.

This is a WARNING.Plan : Sell all shares at next week.( Good day on 31 October )

1973 Feb PE 38.1 Dividend yield 1.87
March PE 31.69 Dividend yield 2.23

1987 September PE 22.35 Dividend yield 1.93
October PE 12.31 Dividend yield 3.48

1994 Jan PE 21.82 Dividend yield 2.07
Feb PE 19.68 Dividend yield 2.28
March PE 15.08 Dividend yield 2.89

2000 Feb PE 26.18 Dividend yield 1.88
March PE 12.33 Dividend yield 2.05

2007 September PE 21.18 Dividend yield 2.04
October PE >21 ( 资料还没出来。不过肯定高过 21 ) Dividend yield < 2.04% ( 资料还没出来。不过肯定底过2%)
November PE ? Dividend yield ?

Portfolio Update

During this October i have doing lots of transaction, such as selling maybulk, buying keladi and sell keladi again, sell ornasteel, sell plenitude.

Here is the portfolio update:

Current on hand share is Masteel and Pjdev, the most worry for me is Pjdev as it has prove that it is not a good defensive counters despite a 5% dividend going to be paid on December. But anyway, there is no good price offer for it, so i just keep it. Cash balance on hand is 14k and stock on share market is around 12k.


With the more cash on hand, i feel comfortable to welcome the Super Bear come.


The return of my portfolio is 11.73% compare to KLSE index 19.71% during these period. Seems like it is very badly underperform. But since i still have 3 months to catch up with the klse index, so i need to work very hard for it.


If November Asia market crash has proven my theory, then i am confident i can win KLSE index steadily. Let's wait and see.

Waiting for the Fed decision tonight

I believe the decision of Fed this time can impact Asian share market alot especially Hang Seng.

If it decide to maintain the interest rate, then prepare to see the whole asia market in "RED" again, but i have no fear with that. With more than 50% cash on hand, i can buy in cheaper price.

But if it lower down the interest rate, the bull keep going on, then i will become short term trader ( do not keep any share overnight !) , as i predict the market will crash on November, so i only aim for a few counters like RCECAP, Engtex, Keladi.

Happy Trading.

Mukesh Ambani Becomes World’s Richest Man

India’s Mukesh Ambani, Chairman of Reliance Industries Limited, a company built from scratch by his late father Mr. Dhirubhai Ambani, has becomed the world’s richest man.

Mukesh Ambani has surpassed Bill Gates, Carlos Slim and Warren Buffett, to become the world’s richest man. The strong bull rally witnessed in the Indian stock markets has boosted the market capitalisation of all reliance group companies in which Mukesh Ambani has a very significant stake.

His brother and younger son of Dhirubhai Ambani, Anil Ambani, the chairman of Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group has also forged his way into the top 20 richest billionaires. Anil is likely to make it to the top 10 once Reliance Power comes out with an IPO and gets listed in the stock markets. Mukesh Ambani is the first Indian to make it to the top of the list of richest men in the world.

The five richest people in the world with their net worth
1. Mukesh Ambani ($63.2 billion)

2. Carlos Slim Helu ($62.2993 billion)

3. William (Bill) Gates ($62.29 billion)

4. Warren Buffett ($55.9 billion)

5. Lakshmi Mittal ($50.9 billion)

More story here:
http://www.stockmarketsview.com/mukesh-ambani-becomes-worlds-richest-man/22/

Hmm, i believe once the bull in India end, then the position will be reverse again. But, this has tell you the power of rising Asian.

Bill Gates' High School Speech on The Eleven Rules of Life

RULE 1 Life is not fair - get used to it.

RULE 2 The world won't care about your self-esteem. The world will expect you to accomplish something BEFORE you feel good about yourself.

RULE 3 You will NOT make 40 thousand dollars a year right out of high school. You won't be a vice president with car phone, until you earn both.

RULE 4 If you think your teacher is tough, wait till you get a boss. He doesn't have tenure.

RULE 5 Flipping burgers is not beneath your dignity. Your grandparents had a different word for burger flipping they called it Opportunity.

RULE 6 If you mess up, it's not your parents' fault, so don't whine about your mistakes, learn from them.

RULE 7 Before you were born, your parents weren't as boring as they are now. They got that way from paying your bills, cleaning your clothes and listening to you talk about how cool you are. So before you save the rain forest from the parasites of your parent's generation, try delousing the closet in your own room.

RULE 8 Your school may have done away with winners and losers, but life has not. In some schools they have abolished failing grades and they'll give you as many times as you want to get the right answer. This doesn't bear the slightest resemblance to ANYTHING in real life.

RULE 9 Life is not divided into semesters. You don't get summers off and very few employers are interested in helping you find yourself. Do that on your own time.

RULE 10 Television is NOT real life. In real life people actually have to leave the coffee shop and go to jobs.

RULE 11 Be nice to nerds. Chances are you'll end up working for one.

Today Trading

Sell Keladi 15000 shares @ 0.25, then sell keladi 6000 shares @ 0.285, then sell keladi 6500 shares @ 0.295, Clear all the share.

Why don't ride the momentum? i just feel wan clear shares, that why when selling 15000 shares of keladi it is only moving, quite unlucky, but it might go up again tomorrow, the host has plan for all this long time ago.

Good luck for Keladi share "holders".

What Can Cause the November Share Market Crash?

1. FED did not lower the interest rate.

2. FED lower the interest rate and Oil price shoot up over 100 USD.

Why oil price will go up? A weaker interest rate make the USD weaker and when value of USD goes down, then oil price that trade in USD will go up.

Better prepare for the crash.

Good luck all.

When to Sell Part 2? Hang Seng Crash on November?

It is interesting to study Hang Seng History as we do have the complete set of data of indicating PE and dividend yield.



I have notice one IMPORTANT things, with PE more than 20 and dividend yield less than or equal 2% at certain month, then market will be collapse/ or having big correction after that particular months.

This rules have been proven on 1973, 1987, 1994, 2000 year where they only have big bull run with low dividend yield.

Hang Seng has enter into November with October month PE more than 20 and and dividend yield less than 2%. This is a WARNING.

Plan : Sell all shares at next week. ( Good day on 31 October )

1973 Feb PE 38.1 Dividend yield 1.87
March PE 31.69 Dividend yield 2.23

1987 September PE 22.35 Dividend yield 1.93
October PE 12.31 Dividend yield 3.48

1994 Jan PE 21.82 Dividend yield 2.07
Feb PE 19.68 Dividend yield 2.28
March PE 15.08 Dividend yield 2.89

2000 Feb PE 26.18 Dividend yield 1.88
March PE 12.33 Dividend yield 2.05

2007 September PE 21.18 Dividend yield 2.04
October PE >21 ( 资料还没出来。不过肯定高过 21 ) Dividend yield < 2.04% ( 资料还没出来。不过肯定底过2%)
November PE ? Dividend yield ?


这只是预测，从hang seng 历史发现的， 我也是希望不会发生。在hang seng历史， 只要PE > 20 和 dividend yield <>21 ( 资料还没出来。不过肯定高过 21 ) Dividend yield <>20 和 dividend yield <>20 和 dividend yield < 2% , 不知中国老有没有本事帮香港逃过这一决?我不敢跟历史作对。只要11月一到， 把所有股卖了。老话一句， 买卖自负。 11 月 股市升更高的话不要怪我。

Dufu , Lngres, MQtech?

Dufu is one of the counter that we should take note.

On recently semi-conductor related company bull run, eg unisem ( from 1.4x to 1.87) , notion ( from 0.4 to 0.465 ), there are some small cap company that did not get involve in it.

Counter like Dufu, Lngres is still stagnant, but we can see another small counter MQtech up 4.44%.

Another one that need highly observe is Mtronic, with high volume recently, and low PE 7, and yet low price 0.185 ( yummy, in bull market ), 52 week high 0.301, then 52 weeks low 0.13. and also Gtronic, 0.285 price now, 52 week high0.440, 52 weeks low 0.235.

However, the concern is the semi con field is in negative cycle, hmm, is there any danger to buy them? US Nasdaq is surging strongly and it will help to boost people to speculate in Mesdaq too.

Ornasteel vs Masteel?

Ornasteel previous 4 Quarter total earning : 24.5 sen, at current price RM1.61 PE = 6.6

Dividend for the previous four quarter - 20 sen, dividend yield = 12.4%

Masteel previous 4 Quarter total earning : 30.75sen, at current price RM1.55 PE = 5

Dividend for the previous four quarter : 2.1 sen, dividend yield = 1.35%

The reason why Ornasteel is able to distribute more dividend is because they have lots of cash in hand and less debt if compare to Masteel. That's make masteel a lower PE when compare to Ornasteel.

But why steel counter at China or India has been favoured by their investor but not Malaysia one? Such a low PE, are they undervalue? Soon they going release their latest quarter report, Let's see is there any rerating of the steel sector.

Time for KLSE to catch up?

KLSE has been laggard since August market correction, now the foreigner has come back :

於週四（10月25日）午後受到外資買盤扶持，使大馬股市綜指全天猛漲1.36%，創下過去3週最大漲幅，直逼1380點關口。

下午約3時開始，在市場預期美國聯儲局將降息激勵下，東南亞區域大部份股市交投情緒轉佳，並在顯著買盤扶持而穩健揚升，包括大馬股市在內，多只藍籌股獲得扯購情況下，使馬股綜指以俊俏水平掛收。

全天收市時，馬股綜指漲18.44點，或是1.36%，至1378.27點高水平。富時大馬全股項指數則漲127.87點，或是1.40%，至9281.30點。第二交易板指數則起0.21點，至108.15點。
全天總成交量達15億2893萬6100股，總值18億7547萬2000令吉。

選擇性藍籌股獲得扯高，包括數碼網絡（DIGI,6947）全天漲50仙，至24令吉70仙、吉隆坡甲洞（KLK,2445）漲50仙至14令吉60仙。LCL企業（LCL,7177）也不甘示弱，全天漲40仙，以6令吉35仙掛收。

分析員認為，中國股市擔心起息而大跌，日本股市也出現套利滑落，使一些外資回流其余區域主要股市，使大馬股市創下數周來最高漲勢。

興業資本（RHBCAP,1066）表現不俗，全天起35仙至6令吉35仙。而百盛（PARKSON,5657）也不遑多讓，也漲35仙，至8令吉45仙。

將于傍晚宣佈最新業績的國家能源（TENAGA,5347）受看好，起30仙至9令吉45仙。而種植股老大IOI集團（IOICORP,1961）全天攀25仙，至6令吉55仙。

Hmm, i can smell bull running ..

What Buffet Said About China/Hong Kong World Share Market?

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett said investors should be ``cautious'' about China's stocks after the country's benchmark index more than doubled this year.
``We never buy stocks when we see prices soaring,'' Buffett said today in Dalian, northeastern China, where he's visiting a subsidiary of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. ``We buy stocks because we're confident of the company's growth. People should be cautious when they see prices rising.''

Buffett has sold shares of PetroChina Co., which has risen 76 percent this year to become the world's second-biggest company by market value. China's benchmark CSI 300 stock index has climbed 48 percent since May 17, when Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest man, said there ``must be a bubble.''

Buffett is right about China stocks, whose valuations are too high,'' said Wang Zheng, who manages the equivalent of $500 million at the asset management unit of Everbright Securities Co. in Shanghai. ``It doesn't make sense any more to still play in such a market. It's about time to pull out of it.''

For more news please refer here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=al9nArn9qOn0&refer=home

Its time to sell off some more shares after November. Its time to cash out and rest at home, do anything you want, except buy in share again.

Today Trading

Sell Maybulk 400 shares @ 5.05, feel sad when i offload all the maybulk shares, one of the best share in KLSE.

I expect it can go over 5.50 easily but this is not the kind of money that i should earn, volatile market = keep your capital first.

You will never know when US market crash, or Hang Seng crash.

They seems danger to me..

Hang Seng Index

Hang Seng index has rebound resiliently after recover from yesterday loss, up 3.54% with 1003.23 points to 29376.86.

Wow, with this speed, and without the interfere from US market negative influence, Sure it will climb into 31000!!

I will sell 3k with every 1000 points they increase.

Maybulk will be 1st , then is keladi, then is masteel and finally is pjdev.

Why Pjdev is last? Because they are going to give dividend up to almost 5% at the beginning of December.

Lets hope KLSE index will follow the Hang Seng Trend too.

Today Trading

Today trading - sell Keladi 10000 @ 0.245 shares, sell ornasteel 2000 @ 1.55 shares, Sell plenitude 400 shares @ 2.92

Cash out first in case DJ perform sucks again tonight.

Hang Seng Index History

I believe everyone is interested to know Hang Seng Index History :


At 1973, from May PE 43.26 until 1974 Jan 21.12 the big bull has started cool down.

At 1979, from Dec PE 20 until 1980 August PE 19.96 then small bull end.

At 1987 Jan PE 19.20 until 1987 Sept PE 22.35 then big bull end.

AT 1993 Dec PE 22.64 until 1994 Feb 19.68 then small bull end.

At 1999 April 21.76 until 2000 Feb 26.18 then the techno bull dead.

At 2003 October 19.20 until 2004 Feb 21.73 the small bull end.

At 2007 Sept 21.18 until ? the fierce bull dead.

Do you have any idea this time bull will last for? i saw the shortest time is 3 months before any correction happen. For this year, this is first time the PE more than 21.18, would it last minimum 3 months? or longer time?

But at least we know one things, now Hang Seng is in very bullish condition ( PE > 22 ) and it has been 2 months! Hmn, if counted 3 months since Sept, then Oct , then November, should we start selling by end of November? Or history will change, it will last for 2 months this time, then history going be changed.

How to determine when is time to sell your shares?

Everyone must develop your own system to decide when to take profit and leave market for a while.

Here is some of my new theory that i will practice to help me when to sell in future.

Rules
1. When market has PE more than 20.
2. When market has dividend yield less than 2%
3. When index trend is far away from the 200 MA.
4. take Hang Seng index for above rules.

I will try to add in more rules as to help the exit timing in the best time..

Now Hang Seng index:
1. September PE 21.18, for October it is sure more than 21.18
2. Dividend yield for September is 2.04%, for October it is sure less than 2% but the stats have not come out.
3. Trend is far away from 200MA. ( due to surge of almost 50% durng this 2 months)

The latest Hang Seng index shows that it is 36% higher than the 200 MA, which is quite danger.

Seems like i should sell some shares even at lower profit/ loss ? Let me do more research..and think..

If i decide to sell all on Monday ( sure on minimal lose) , it might prove to be a mistakes, but at least you learn and improve.

Dow Jones tumble 366.94 points (-2.64%)

Dow Jones Tumbles 366.94 points,

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 367 points and closed at the lowest since the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark lending rate Sept. 18. Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. led financial shares to their worst week since 2002 after Wachovia Corp. said loan defaults reduced profit. Energy producers dropped the most in two years.

S&P 500 companies have posted an average profit decline of 0.6 percent in the third quarter, the first drop since 2002, according to Bloomberg data.

Weekly Drop
The S&P 500 fell 3.9 percent this week and the Dow average lost 4.1 percent. The Nasdaq declined 2.9 percent.

More than one-third of the 92 financial companies in the S&P 500 have reported third-quarter results. Their 17 percent average profit drop is the biggest since Bloomberg began tracking quarterly earnings growth in the third quarter of 1997.

Financial firms account for about 19 percent of the S&P 500's value and produced 27 percent of the index's profits last quarter, according to Bloomberg data.

Seems like US recession just begin, with the remaining two third of S&P 500 companies going to release their quarter result, we shall see.

Today trading

Today has did a very bad trading ... sold 3500 shares Rcecap with 0.92 with loss RM70. and buy in keladi at 10000 shares of 0.26 and 7500 shares at 0.255.

Seems like this is a bad decision after find out the Dow Jones is currently down -1.57%.

Either take it easy on Monday ( T+3) or sold it first for safety.

hmm..another hard decision..

Hong Kong Market Looks Cheap?

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong's most expensive stock market in three years looks cheap to investors at Templeton Asset Management Ltd. and Baring Asset Management Inc.

The Hang Seng Index, dominated by Chinese companies, traded at 19.2 times earnings last week, the highest since March 2004, after the benchmark rallied 41 percent since mid-August

``It's crazy to have that kind of a discount,'' said Mobius, who's buying Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese energy companies, banks and materials producers for the $45 billion he oversees from Singapore

Read more from here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602005&sid=acBKkWR3Z2JM&refer=world_indiceshttp://www.msn.com/

Thats looks crazy, China has been considered a high PE market but they said Hong Kong china-based company looks cheaper when compare to China. And there are 41 percents gain just within 2 months?

Once hang seng is over 30000 point i am going to sell some of my shares to maintain 50% cash 50% shares. ( or maybe lesser)

Buffet Checkpoint

0. Selling paper and cherry coke -Buffett breathed business since he was a young boy. By the time he was 20 years old in 1950, he had saved $9,800 by selling newspaper and cherry coke.

1. College years - From 1950 to 1956, Buffett perfects his investment style by practicing it again and again; by 1956 he has $140,000.

2. First partnership - In 1956 Buffett forms his first partnership with seven people - his sister Doris, her husband, Aunt Alice, Dr. Thompson, his ex roommate Chuck Peterson, his mother and Dan Moren his lawyer. They altogether put $105K, of which Buffett contributes a whopping $100. Yeah, I did not miss any zeros; it is indeed one with two zeros.

3. The same year he starts two more partnerships, one with physicist Homer Dodge who put in $120K. By the start of 1957 he is managing $300k.

4. Summer of 1957 - Ed Davis, a prominent urologist, put up $100K. By the end of 1957 Buffett is running 5 partnerships totaling $500k.

5. 1958 - Buffett's portfolio soars by 41%, beating the Dow which soars 39%.

6. 1960 - Buffett approaches William Angle, a cardiologist, and asks if he could get 10 doctors to invest $10k each.

7. 1961 - Buffett invests $1 million in Dempster Mill Manufacturing. By 1961 the partnership has gained 251%

8. The first million - At the beginning of 1962, the Buffett partnership has $7.2 million. Of this, $1 million belonged to Buffett. The partnership has 90 people.

9. He merges all partnerships to one and quadruples the minimum investment to $100,000. He also moves his office to Kiewit Plaza.

10. 1963 - Buffett sells Dempster, netting the partnership a $2.3 million profit - page 77.
11. 1963 - Invests in Berkshire Hathaway at $7.60 / share.

12. The partnerships jump 39% in 1963 and 28% in 1964. Buffett is managing $22 million, with his personal net worth being $4 million.

13. By the beginning of 1966, the partnership is worth $44 million, of which Buffett is worth $6.8 million.The partnership had grown 1,156% compared to 122% of Dow.

14. By 1967 the partnership is worth $65 million and his net worth is $10 million.

15. The bulk of his profits until now are derived from American Express (AXP), in which he has invested $13 million and has made a $20 million profit.

16. 1969 - Buffett closes his partnership, worth $100 million, and pockets $25 million.

17. Buffett's partners were later referred to Bill Ruane, a Graham follower and the person setting up the Sequoia Fund.

18. The partnership liquidates all but two of its investments, Berkshire Hathaway and Diversified Retailing.

19. Berkshire and Hathaway were independent textile businesses that merged in 1955 creating Berkshire Hathaway.

20. May 10 1965, Buffett becomes chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Its stock is trading at $18/share.

21. In 1967 he buys National Indemnity for $50/share for total price of $8.6 million

22. In successive years Buffett buys from the float of National Indeminity companies like:
i) Sun Newspaper of Omaha. ii) Rockford Bank.

23. In 1970, with the dissolution of the Buffett Partnership, Buffett becomes 29% owner of Berkshire. Since then he has owned 474,998 shares of Berkshire

24. In 1970 Berkshire's profits were: i) Textiles - $45k ii) Insurance $2.1 million iii) Banking $2.6 million.

25. 1972 - Berkshire's insurance business had a float of $100 million of which only $17 million was invested in stocks.The rest were invested in bonds because Buffett was not able to find any bargains

26. Feb 1973 - Buffett buys 18,600 shares at $27 each of the Washington Post (WPO); when the stock falls to $23 Buffett buys 40,000 more. By October 1973. Berkshire is the largest outside investor of Washington post.

27. Berkshire's share price in early 1974 had dropped from $8 to $40.Even Berkshire's portfolio was sinking. By end of 1973 its portfolio is $40 million with a net cost of $52 million.

28. In 1971 Buffett invests $25 million in See's Candies, by far its biggest investment

29. Early 1975 the SEC interrogates Buffett on charges of manipulating Wesco's (WSC) stock price.

30. In 1975 Buffett merges Berkshire and Diversified, the firm controlled by Munger. Munger gets 2% stock of Berkshire and becomes its vice chairman.

31. In April 1976 Berkshire invests $4 million in GEICO when its stock price was just above $2. This was first of the series of purchases that will last till 1994 when he completely buys GEICO.

32. 1977 - Berkshire Hathaway's share price is at $132 and Buffett's net worth is $70 million

33. 1978 - Evening News, one of Buffett's businesses, loses $2.9 million pre tax.

34. In 1982 Courier Express it closed because of heavy losses. Evening News became the only local newspaper of Buffalo and its name is changed to Buffalo News. It becomes a goldmine for Buffett. The newspaper earned $19 million in its first year without competition. By the late eighties the Buffalo News will earn $40 million/year , way more than what Buffett had invested.

35. 1981 - Berkshire trades at $470.

36. 1982 - Berkshire trades at $750 - page 242.

37. By 1983 Berkshire's investments are worth $1.3 billion.

38. September 1983 - Berkshire trades at $1,245.In 1965 Dow was at 933 and Berkshire at $18.By 1983 Berkshire is at $1,310 and the Dow is at 1,259. Buffett's net worth is $620 million

39. 1985 - Berkshire trades at $2,600.

40 By 1987 Berkshire trades at $3,450. Buffett had sold all the shares of his portfolio except cap cities, GEICO and Washington Post.

41. Black Monday era - October 19,1987 is considered black Monday, which triggers a series of stock market collapses all over the world. By the end of October, the Dow had lost 22%. A week before the fall Berkshire traded at $4,230. On October 16 it trades at $3,890 and on October 19 it falls to $3,170.

42. By spring of 1989 Berkshire has acquired $1.02 billion of Coca Cola (KO) (7% of the company) at an average price of $10.96

43. After investing in Coca Cola Buffett becomes its director.

44. In March 1989 Berkshire is trading at $4,800 and by the end of 1989 it is trading at $8,000.

45. Berkshire trades at $8,750 in September 1989

46. 1990 - Buffett buys 10% of Wells Fargo (WFC) bank.The reason being that Carl Reichardt, the chairman of the bank who was famous for slashing costs , had once sold his jet to cut costs and Buffett appreciated this gesture

47. Buffett's investment in USAir (LCC) is his worst investment.

48. After the debacle of 1990. By August 1991 Berkshire is again at $8,800.

49. November 1992 Berkshire is a $10k stock; by the end of 1993 it is $16,325; by 1995 it is 32,100 and by 1996 it is $40k. The net revenues in 1995 are $4.56 billion and net income is $795 million.

50. Still going strong in the 21st century: Even though Berkshire's insurance business faced some huge losses in recent hurricanes and floods, the company's revenues have increased from $74 billion in 2004 to $98 billion in 2006.The net income has increased from $7.3 billion to $11 billion. The book value has increased from $85 billion to $108 billion in the corresponding time period. Wall Street has handsomely rewarded the master investor's baby by increasing its stock price from $84k in July 2005 to $110k in Jul-2007. A 30% gain in two years, which I would give an A+ considering that it is a mega large cap company (Berkshire's market cap is around $170 billion as of July 23,2007).

Berkshire Share Price at a Glance
May-1965 $18

Mar-1984 $1,300

Jan-1990 $8,300

Jan-1996 $32,000

Jan-2002 $74,800

Jan-2006 $100,000

Jul-2007 $110,000

Berkshire Hathaway's price has increased by 6,111 times in 42 years; this means $1,000 invested with Berkshire stock in 1965 would have become $6.1 million by now...

So, if a person asked you give one thousands today and he will pass back you 6.1millions 42 years later would you love to do this? Yes, sure i love.

But there is only person can make it, Warren Buffet. The only one.

Today Trading

Buy RCEcap back at 0.94 @ 3500 shares.

Volume is high today but only up merely 4%.

Maybulk rose pass RM5 to RM5.10 but go back to 4.94 due to profit taking.

Queue to sell RM5.10 this morning but it only happen on evening. Too bad, this stock is still kept on hand.

Some "predictors" is telling me tomorrow will be big correction, maybe a disaster :)

Let's sleep first. and wake up and see tomorrow. I do hope the bull can last until end of year, or maybe Chinese New Year, at least i have chance to dispose at higher price for my masteel and ornasteel.

When is the time to sell?

I have been thinking this questions quite long time, Malaysia bull market has started since October 2006, and last until now, which is around 1 years. While other country might last longer.

The bull cant keep going, i believe we need to set some kind of benchmark to indicate when we should start selling.

I think once Hang Seng breach 30000 points , or maybe before Chinese New Year on Feb, i can start to offload some of my shares.

The very bad things is Malaysia did not benefit alot from this bull run, compare to Singapore and Hong Kong.

Keep more cash for the bear. Maybe time to switch to other country.

Us Stocks Financial Week

The next 2 week we will see US companies releasing their financial report.

A good result might send Dow Jones to another record high.

Here are some of the companies scheduled to report:

Monday: Citigroup and Mattel (MAT, news, msgs).

Tuesday: Intel (INTC, news, msgs), IBM, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, news, msgs) and Yahoo (YHOO, news, msgs). Closely watched will be earnings from Wells Fargo (WFC, news, msgs) and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA, news, msgs), two important players in the mortgage markets.

Wednesday: , JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs), Coca-Cola (KO, news, msgs) and United Technologies (UTX, news, msgs).

Thursday: Pfizer (PFE, news, msgs), Google and Bank of America (BAC, news, msgs). At the same time, several important government economic reports will hit the markets.


Friday: 3M (MMM, news, msgs), Caterpillar (CAT, news, msgs), Honeywell International (HON, news, msgs), Schlumberger (SLB, news, msgs) and Wachovia (WB, news, msgs).

Lets hope bull will keep on running.

Latest Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +182 ,

Many company have upgraded Maybulk to buy above RM5.15.

Seems like it can break RM5 very soon.

Why buy Keladi?

Why want to buy keladi?

1st: consistent net profit over 4 years , 2007 has 15million s, 2008 2Q has 12++ millions.

2nd: with 2Q ( 13 millions )0.017eps, let say a 0.025eps for this full year, the PE @ 0.25 is around 10, which is a bit high, but since they has net cash 29 millions on hand, translate to the 0.037 cash per share, which is consider cash rich.

3rd: they just paid a 1.1sen dividend not long time ago, translating to 4.4% (net dividend ), which is quite high among property stock. ( Another high dividend yield is Pjdev).

4th: They are housing developer is in Kedah area, which might benefit from the Northern Corridor Economic Region.

5th: Obviouly the property counter has not moved for this small bull run, but i can see plenitude is started to move from 2.84 to today 3.02, once the counter start to run, then we should profit much.

6th: Market want to fry counter below RM1 !!

7th: this counter has volume, and you can see the the price seems like controlling by some one, either they sell large lots at 0.25, or either they queue many to buy at 0.24 or 0.245.

Maybe my analyst is wrong, but this counter has the fundamental. So no worry you will lose big money.

But since this is the trading play, don't put too much on it. i have allocated big percentage of my portfolio money into property stocks due to they haven run.

Today trading Selling Maybulk on strength

Just sold maybulk on strength,

4.6 @ 500 shares, then 4.76 @ 400 shares, still keep 400shares on hand.

Then swap some of the money to pjdev buy at 0.915 2000 shares.

Today Trading

Just sold 3500 shares of RCEcap @ 0.925, and bought keladi 20000 shares @ 0.25 this morning.

Result and share price

Above table teach us a lesson, after market drop, if the quarter report for some company did show some improvement compare to previous quarter or last year quarter, please buy them, Their share price will go back eventually. :)

and you can notice one thing, those property stock still very far from the peak, seems like the property counter is not moving yet. when it move, better switch money to property stocks. Plan to purchase plenitude.

Bought Pjdev @ 0.925

add in another 1500 shares of Pjdev @ 0.925.

maybe consider plenitude once it drop below 2.9.

Sold metrok, melewar

Just sold Metrok 1200share @ 1.56, then sold melewar @ 1.55,

The purpose is to cash out some money.

Queuing Sunway Infrakstruture @ 0.2 but too bad did not get it, it go up to 0.235 today, uup 24%,

The purpose i queue for this stock is because a friend work inside sunway said that they have sold the Suninfra to third party ( government.. rumours..). This is good news for suninfra and also sunway group. You cannot get suninfra, maybe can go for sunway group.

Not sure whether i have chance to get some lots with the price i want tomorrow.

Maybulk got room to go up??

Definitely,check it out at http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +29 9566

Omg, it come to 9566.

1 month ago is Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +140 8410

seems like it just rise, :) don't sell Maybulk yet!!

Portfolio Update

Lets see how is the portfolio perform for month September :

The portfolio rose to 8.89% with the help of maybulk, masteel and ornasteel. Rcecap also contribute abit to the profit. Too bad the property counter did not perform as i expected, but i will still hold on them. Their time will come. When Rcecap is sold, the money will be added into the property counter.

Compare with klse index since 1/3/2007 until now, it has a gain of 14.7%. my portfolio is still under perform the klse index. But since there are still 5 months to go before i close my year 2007 portfolio, lets hope i can beat the index again.

Thanks to Sam

special thanks to Sam for his tips. :)

RCEcap up 10%, :)

Buy in RCEcap

Just buy in RCEcap at 0.87 with 3500 shares., if you do not follow Uncle Sam tips, then wait and see, to see how good it is.

All the property counter pjdev, metrok , and plenitude not performing well, but the metal steel all perform good, wait for 2 months and see, since all the property stocks above will distribute the dividend at the end of years.

today volume is around 78k, which is quite low compare to the peak volume time like 230k. The share price might shoot up to RM1 in the short term if the volume is high enough.

Let' see the performance tomorrow.

A & M

Hmm, above is volume and share price of A & M (the drop of share price is due to share split) today volume is the highest a super shoot up...hmm..whats behind it?

with this volume only up a merely 4.5%? Better take a close monitor.. :)

Plenitude

All counter were up but only Plenitude down.

Not sure why, but take a look on the FA.

Net cash position with 81millions on hand,
2006 2007
Land held for properties development : 98.66 138.64
Property development expenditure ( current ) : 139.67 131.50
Property development expenditure(not current) : 166.28 175.30

I did not see there any changes with the fundamental. With the current property development expenditure still remain the same, i expect them to achieve the same result for the next year. With the cash on hand, they can buy and develop any land anytime. This counter is too cheap with 2.96.

Pjdev and Plenitude are still the favourite. :) . still confidence with malaysia property counter. Government will make it "hot".

Dow up 336 on Fed's big rate cut

The central bank cuts its key rate to 4.75% in a move to prevent a deep housing slump from turning into a recession. Stocks, especially financial stocks, soar in reaction.

The stock market enjoyed one of its biggest days of the year today after the Federal Reserve delighted investors with a larger-than-expected cut in its key interest rate.

The Dow Jones industrials soared nearly 336 points, or 2.5%, to 13,739 -- its biggest point and percentage gains of the year. The point gain was the biggest since Oct. 1, 2002. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 43 points, or 2.9%, to 1,518, its best percentage gain since Aug. 1, and the Nasdaq Composite Index soared 70 points, or 2.7%, to nearly 2,652.

At the same time, however, consumers won't be happy with energy prices. Crude oil closed at $81.51 a barrel in New York, a record closing price, and was above $82 in after-hours trading this afternoon.

The huge rally came after the Fed cut its federal funds rate from 5.25% to 4.75% in a bid to keep the softening economy from sliding into recession. The federal funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight loans and is the basis for everything from business loans to credit card charges.

The Fed also cut its discount rate -- the rate it charges member banks and institutions for short-term loans -- from 5.25% to 4.75%.

Stocks shot higher in response within seconds of the Fed's 2:15 p.m. ET announcement.
"The tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally," the Fed's statement on its decision said. "Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time."
Most Fed watchers had expected a smaller cut in the fed funds rate to 5% and 5.5% on the discount rate.

Hmm, the economic at us so bad? What do you think? Let's see how stock market performs today :)

Warren Buffet

There was a one hour interview on CNBC with Warren Buffet, the second richest man who has donated $31 billion to charity. Here are some very interesting aspects of his life:

1. He bought his first share at age 11and he now regrets that he started toolate!

2. He bought a small farm at age 14with savings from delivering newspapers.

3. He still lives in the same small 3-bedroom house in mid-town Omaha ,that he bought after he got married 50 years ago. He says that he has everything he needs in that house. His house does not have a wall or a fence.

4. He drives his own car everywhere anddoes not have a driver or security people around him.

5. He never travels by private jet,although he owns the world's largest private jet company.

6. His company, Berkshire Hathaway,owns 63 companies.He writes only one letter each year tothe CEOs of these companies, giving them goalsfor the year. He never holds meetingsor calls them on a regular basis.He has given his CEO's only two rules.Rule number

1: do not lose anyof your share holder's money. Rulenumber 2: Do not forget rule number 1.

7. He does not socialize with the high society crowd. His past time after he gets home is to make himself some pop corn and watch Television.

8. Bill Gates, the world's richest man met him for the first time only5 years ago. Bill Gates did not think he had anything in common withWarren Buffet. So he had scheduled his meeting only for half hour. But when Gates met him, the meeting lasted for ten hours and Bill Gates became a devotee of Warren Buffet.

9. Warren Buffet does not carry a cellphone, nor has a computer on his desk.His advice to young people: "Stay away from credit cards and invest inyourself andRemember:

A. Money doesn't create man; it is the man who created money.
B. Live your life as simple as you are.
C. Don't do what others say, just listen to them, but do what you feel good.
D. Don't go for brand name; just wear those things in which u feel comfortable.
E. Don't waste your money on unnecessary things; just spend on those who really are in need.
F. After all it's your life so why give chance to others to rule your life."

Which field is better?

For those who is studying secondary school/plan to change field, what is the best job you can think?

Honestly saying, it is better to study your interest subject.

But which field has highest paid + good bonus?

I can say it would be the best to work for bank, my brother who work in bank for IT support has found out (accidentally) the pay slip of the fresh graduate is around 30k per month.

Gosh, 30k = 65k ringgit per month, that does not include the bonus, better study for finance instead of IT or engineering.

My friend who work for engineer has been calling by his remisier friend to accompany him to buy "sports car". I ask him, whats is the minimum price of the car he can see at the shop, he told me " minimum 180k sgd".

Bank is willing to pay you if you can earn alot of money for company, as you are using money to earn money, not like IT selling service support, or engineer selling knowledge, who is not "directly" contribute to the company.

You will find out all these when you come out work at society.

Volume Shrink : 600,819,600 share done ONLY

Most of my counter go into negative region now...

Except masteel and maybulk which i purchase in very low price,

but i not sure they can survive at the next wave ...

seems like after Wednesday many of us will become long term shareholder :)

Dutch Lady Time

It's Dutch Lady time!

Every one know the Dutch Lady manufacture of sweetened condensed milk, milk powder, dairy products and fruit juice drnks.

Let's take a look how they perform durng this time bull market :

wow, impressive, has been double, or maybe triple if you buy at RM4.

What make it so good? Take a look on below stats:

2003 net earning 15millions

2004 net earning 20millions

2005 net earning 27millions

2006 net earning 43 millions

2007 2Q net earning 43 millions.

Omg, this counter is good. They have been given out the dividend as much as RM1.165 per share since last Q3 2006. This explain why the this counter worth PE 15 for today price RM11.80.

two things contribute to this high PE:

1st. growing earning power.

2nd good dividend.

I cant predict whether they will earn better in next year, but i believe that they cannot sustain giving out dividend in this way, earning 80 sen per share but giving out RM1.165 per share. You can observe that their shareholder equity is decreasing compare to last year. ( Most company will have increasing shareholder equity so that they can use the excess money to invest in their business and keep on growing.).

This share might have chance to go back to RM14 if the foreign investor is coming back..or else, keep it as defensive stock for dividend. (i doubt they can still continue to keep on growing , so as the dividend payout , better sell when observe there are some changes of dividend payout policy or staggering earning )

I prefer Maybulk than Dutchlady for dividend counter. Why? Maybulk paying a good dividend too, and i can see at newspaper they start "selling" transportation counter..Maybulk definitely will rise further..Good luck for Dutch lady shareholder too.

Import Oil??

林冠英：油價上漲敲警鐘馬2011年將成淨石油入口國

（八打靈再也訊）民主行動黨秘書長林冠英表示，新經濟政策、油價上漲與馬來西亞的石油儲備逐漸減少，將會促使馬來西亞在2011年成為淨石油入口國，並破壞未來的經濟增長與繁榮。他發表文告說，首相阿都拉巴達威沒有從油價上漲至每桶80美元負面效應所帶來的挑戰中覺醒，民主行動黨對此表示關注。油價上漲敲響的三重警鐘，即新經濟政策所強調反競爭、反成長及反貿易的另一面，再加上石油儲備量減少，將是馬來西亞政府勢將且還未準備面對的兩大挑戰。“石油收入佔我政府2007年度收入的37.6%。根據財政部最新估計的預算案，我國在2007年年度收入估計是1417億9000萬令吉。其中石油及天然氣就佔了533億1100萬令吉。”他說，石油收入有助於我國緩衝管理不當、浪費公帑及貪污丑聞所帶來的負面衝擊，否則我國的經濟早就癱瘓。當馬來西亞在2011年成為了淨石油入口國，必須提出的質疑是馬來西亞要到哪里尋找數百億令吉的需要來填補國家財務的缺口。

hmm, is this really true?? seems like government will definitely decrease the subsidization of oil price, gosh....next year...after election, they will announce this "good news " maybe..better save more/earn money to invest in other country ^_^

Vietnam vs Malaysia?

越南股市大旺居亚洲之首 不可低估的亚洲第五虎

都说中国的股市疯狂，但实际上，2006年位于亚洲国家股指涨幅之首的是越南，越南经济的巨大潜力被严重低估了　　国际先驱导报驻越南记者黄海敏，实习记者王晓洁发自河内、

北京 费先生是在河内工作多年的中国人，对越南近年来的经济腾飞非常感慨：“2000年的时候，一个外企白领拿到100美元的月薪就很不错了，可现在一个月挣两三百都不希罕。 　　虽然物价也涨了，但人们生活水平的提高却是铁打的事实。费先生说：“河内的大超市比比皆是，一到节假日就挤满了人，他们往购物车上扔东西的架势一点不亚于中国的城市居民。”　　

河内大街上的高档车也越来越多。“以前大街上70％的车都是摩托车，现在40％都是汽车，而且大都是丰田、奔驰等高档车。”费先生坦言，中国人严重低估了越南经济的发展。　　

最熟悉的陌生人　　

“我说我在越南定居了，朋友们都以为我疯了。”江西人彭子豪于两年前来到越南做餐饮生意，逐渐喜欢上了这个地方，还娶了越南妻子。“其实越南并没有中国人想的那么穷，我妻子是越南农村人，他们生活得比中国农民舒服得多。”　　越南究竟有多好？下面这组数字也许有助于国人对越南建立一个客观的认识：去年越南的GDP增速为8.2%，仅次于中国；越南人的识字率达到95%以上，高于中国；越南的幸福指数也比中国高出18个位次，2006年排名全球第12，位列亚洲第一。越南还有许多不为人知的发展优势，比如国民心态平和，社会安宁；工人富有纪律且团结；欺诈、盗窃现象较少，在越南几乎看不到防盗门、防盗窗以及汽车摩托车报警器。越南领导班子在经济、政治改革中的行动力也令世界对其刮目相看——为了治理党内腐败，越南政府专门委托瑞典国际发展合作局进行了一项为期三年的研究，耗资高达70万美金。　　

最有潜力的世界工厂　
　
彭子豪感到最近生意越来越好做了。现在，他专门为胡志明的开发区配送工作餐。“这里新厂特别多，我们都忙不过来了！”　　

如今，走出了亚洲金融危机阴影，越南经济步入了高速发展的轨道，跨国公司都十分看好越南这只“潜力股”。去年，英特尔斥资13亿美金进入胡志明高科技开发区；今年，台湾鸿海集团更以50亿美元的投资在越南建立了自己的生产园区。光是今年1月净流入外资就超过了10亿美元，达到了去年外资总额的1/8，照这样的速度，越南全年外资规模将达到GDP的1/5。　　

对越投资的国家和地区中，亚洲占多数，它们也正在酝酿从中国大陆转移一部分资金到越南，分散投资风险。根据日本贸易振兴机构的最新调查，75%的在越投资日企都认为越南是今后10年东南亚的最佳投资地点，并计划将部分投资移出中国。目前，中国不少沿海城市都开始“挑商选资”，

投资成本逐年增加，而在越投资不仅门槛低，劳动力成本也只有中国的50%～70%。　　紧邻东盟十国广阔的市场空间，坐拥热带国土的丰厚自然资源，越南作为“最有潜力的世界工厂”已颇具雏形。最近安邦咨询发布报告指出，在吸引外资上，越南可能成为中国的重要竞争对手。　　

最具投资成长价值的亚洲国家　　

都说中国的股市疯狂，但在去年，越南以145％的股指涨幅位于亚洲国家之首。不少人都这样描绘越南的股市：“人傻、钱多、速来”。瑞士信贷亚洲区首席经济分析师陶冬则撰文分析：“投资越南的人并不傻，但是不要抱着短炒的心态”。　　

自越南在七年前设立股市起，资本市场便以惊人的速度发展。据安邦咨询发布的消息，当越南首家证券交易中心在2000年成立时，只有两种上市股票，市场规模仅1730万美元。但截至今年6月，越南股市总市值已经达到371万亿越南盾（约合238亿美元），共有190家上市公司。外国投资者都十分看好“亚洲第五虎”的发展前景，近来外资净买入越南股票的金额已经超过净买入台湾股票的金额，尽管越南股市市值不到台湾股市的3%。安邦咨询在报告中明确指出：“越南已经成为亚洲地区极具投资成长价值的国家之一。”


A lauzy investor to invest in Vietnam and the greatest investor invest in Malaysia, who will win? i think maybe Vietnam investor, is not because he is lucky, just the condition there make him become the winner.

klse volume shrink??

Volume is less than 1 billions today, hmm...if the volume going down further more then prepare for a long battle!

maybe FED will announce good news at this month, pjdev is going down..seems cheap.. :)

wait for the confirmation of the date for dividend paid..he definitely will go up to RM1...

Single-tier tax system Good?

Check out from here:

From BizWeek:

Another move that may not go down so well with some is the introduction of the single-tier tax system on profits and dividends, as this would be disadvantageous to those who are in the below 26% tax bracket as well as to those who currently do not pay any income taxes, such as the pensioners and retirees.

This is because this category of taxpayers would effectively have to pay the difference between their current tax rates and the corporate tax rate of 26% from next year onwards. Presently, such individuals are able to claim for refunds from the Inland Revenue Board.

Take, for example, a person who receives a total of RM1,000 in gross dividends in 2008 from his investments but is currently only in the 20% marginal tax rate band. The net dividend that he receives would be RM740 (RM1,000 – RM260, the latter being the 26% corporate tax). Under the present system, he would be able to claim a refund of RM60 (RM260 – RM200) but under the proposed single-tier tax system, he would not be entitled to any refunds.

Comment : omg, i suppose can claimed the refund if i am under 26 marginal tax rate band, but now no more. Thanks government.

Maybe it times to consider invest in other country..

Why buy Maybulk?

Check below website:

http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +140 8410

omg, it add another 140 to 8410 index.

If you do not buy maybulk, then surely you will lose the chance to earn money.

They are paying good dividend, under kuok rich family management and finally, the BDI is going up, up, up..

Bear Coming??

Quote From Bloomberg :

U.S. stocks tumbled after the first monthly decline in jobs since 2003 magnified the threat of a recession, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 250 points and wiping out this week's gains.

Payrolls shrunk by 4,000 jobs last month, compared with a 100,000 gain expected by economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Hmm, is that us economic that bad?? some say the subprime issue is been magnified, some say is small problem, some say...

who to trust? we might need some time to determine whether bear market is coming or not..but i confirm one things, malaysia economic seems ok :)

Pjdev and Melewar.

Seems like people is expecting Malaysia budgetary is benefiting property counter.

my pjdev up 5% today ( as i said, we have big tauke behind this counter) and melewar shoot up 12% within these 2 days.

While metrok go up to 1.68 (3%) with the warrant up 25% today. ( who is so generous to pay such high price?)

Metal stock is still undervalued, let's hope government will announce some good news for them.

Maybulk 8sen dividend ex date is on coming 10-9. This counter is still under valued. Might reach to 4.50 soon if Us did not make much trouble for us. :)

Portfolio update

well, lets compare my portfolio with the klse index.

since this portfolio is started at 1/3/2007 until 28/2/2008, so i wll compare with the index within this period.

At 1/3/2007, index is 1,164.68, at 6/9/2007, 1298.85, so total return is which is 11.5%.
While my portfolio return is a merely 7.21%, which is under performed the market by 4.29%.

The main reason is i make too much lose during the period 1/3/2007 until 1/7/2007 .

Another reason is i added in 5k-6k within these few months has diluted my investment return percentage.

I hope i can achieve at least 20% for this 2007 year and outperform the klse index. we shall see.

Plenitude on hand

manage to get Plenitude on 3.02 4 lot, = 1.2k.

:)

if market crash how? no cash at hand, nvm..all are good counter with low PE.

(Average lower than 10 ).

which is good enough for me :)

Buy in Pjdev

Just bought 3000 shares of Pjdev at 0.925.

Cash left only 1k something.

Maybe for plenitude at 3.02.

:)

How cheap is Masteel?

with 2 Quarter now, they have eps 15.64, with another two quarter with similar result (which is a very conservative assumption!), let say 30sen,

At price 1.34, the pe = 4.7, omg!! you say cheap or not? if they did better than current one, you will see the cheapest profitable metal stock.

Not convincing? then look at below statesment :

1.Construction Industry Recovery
The construction sector is projected to turn around in 2007 to register a growth of 3%, against a contractionof 0.5% in 2006.Under the Ninth Malaysia Plan, the Government has allocated up to RM10 billion for the development ofSouthern Corridor in the State of Johor, which includes the development of a special economic zone knownas the Iskandar Development Region. The implementation of the plan, which will start in 2007, is expected toboost the local construction industry.The steel industry is looking to benefit from the positive growth and re-bound of the construction industry.

2.Export Potentials
Singapore’s highly profiled casino/resorts mega-project development plan will also augur well for Malaysia’s steelindustry due to our proximity to the island city.

3.Foreign Exchange
The strengthening of the Malaysian Ringgit against the US Dollar will reduce the cost of imported materialsnecessary for our manufacturing process, thereby benefiting our overall cost of production.

Decide whether to buy or not, think..

Portfolio Update

Portfolio update:
sell litrak at 3.80 with 500 shares.. get 2k cash.

manage to get masteel on thursday. 1 lot. By having 4k cash on hand, they should be use for future purchase.


Now the portfolio looks as above, property stock is only take out 12% of total portfolio, which is very low. I intends to add pjdev and plenitude into my portfolio, and make the propery counter become 40% or more.

melewar should be sold to swap to property counter. :) try to get some during monday.

Pjdev and Plenitude

Many counters like ireka, paramon, pjdev and plenitude property counter record very impressive result ( too bad metrok did not).

Among these counter, i most like the counter pjdev and plenitude.

lets take a look on plenitude quarter report:

revenue for 2007 compare to 2006 is 238millions compare to 221millions, basic earning is 41sen ps compare to 38.8 sen ps, which is 8% improvement.

at current price RM3.02, the PE is 7.36. Which is ridiculous low. :).

This is commented in quarter report:
The Group achieved a profit after tax of RM56.5 million on the back of revenue of RM238.2 million for the current year-to-date under review. This performance was mainly attributable to progressive profit recognised on properties sold, completed and handed over in respect of Taman Desa Tebrau in Johor, Taman Putra Prima in Selangor, Bandar Perdana in Kedah, The Residences and Changkat View in Sri Hartamas, Kuala Lumpur. Apart from the profit contributed from property development projects, Tanjung Bungah Beach Hotel in Penang has also contributed 2% to the Group’s net profit.

With long term borrowng stood at 11m, cash on hand 81 millions, (wow, a debt free company!) ,

Land Held for future Development
138,641

Property Development Projects - non current portion
175,305

Property Development Projects - current portion
131,508

All is very good!!! they have many lands , many future project and current project working, a pe lower than 8 is too low!! this company is undervalue.

Will buy in for 3.02 if possible monday

For pjdev,

revenue for 2007 compare to 2006 is 549.358millions compare to 487.82millions, basic earning is 9.29sen ps compare to 6.29 sen ps, which is improvement 49%.

pricing for now is 0.92, which is Pe around 10.

This is commented in quarter report:
The Board projects a better financial year ahead. With the on going projects receiving encouraging response coupled with new launches, the Property Division is expected to record higher earnings. Cable manufacturing business continues to show good performance. With the vigorous implementation of the 9th Malaysian Plan, we believe that the demand for power cables will continue to be strong and the cable business will perform satisfactorily. Our Hotel and Leisure division will also benefit from the government’s current promotional activities to attract foreign visitors to our country, and as such, the performance of this division will continue to improve.

seems like management has the confidence to achieve better result, with 5 sen dividen going to be declared , at price 0.92, dividend is around 4%. which is very good

How to know they have more project to reep more profit?

Current Property Development Costs is 261m vs 169m (previous year), i believe there is more to offer from pjdev.

some more, there is some one want to push the price going up (a very big boss!)

These 3 counters will be my main composition of property counter.

metrok will be benefited from the government new policy ( as rumous going :) , so i will keep it.

Good luck !

Portfolio analysis

My portfolio analysis is looks as above:

metal stock is taking 48% (majority) of my portfolio, while highway (litrak) stock is 11%, with shipping (maybulk) on top of it which is 29%, property is only a merely 12%, i believe selling melewar on strength and selling litrak to get more property stock is the better way of reposition my portfolio.

Whats next? maybe metrok, pjdev, plenitude :)

WAit for government announce good news for property sector. still have around 3-4k cash on hand for property too.

Dow Jones seems dropping alot now, shopping time maybe...