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Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Portfolio Update

During this October i have doing lots of transaction, such as selling maybulk, buying keladi and sell keladi again, sell ornasteel, sell plenitude.
Here is the portfolio update:



Current on hand share is Masteel and Pjdev, the most worry for me is Pjdev as it has prove that it is not a good defensive counters despite a 5% dividend going to be paid on December. But anyway, there is no good price offer for it, so i just keep it. Cash balance on hand is 14k and stock on share market is around 12k.


With the more cash on hand, i feel comfortable to welcome the Super Bear come.


The return of my portfolio is 11.73% compare to KLSE index 19.71% during these period. Seems like it is very badly underperform. But since i still have 3 months to catch up with the klse index, so i need to work very hard for it.


If November Asia market crash has proven my theory, then i am confident i can win KLSE index steadily. Let's wait and see.

Waiting for the Fed decision tonight

I believe the decision of Fed this time can impact Asian share market alot especially Hang Seng.

If it decide to maintain the interest rate, then prepare to see the whole asia market in "RED" again, but i have no fear with that. With more than 50% cash on hand, i can buy in cheaper price.

But if it lower down the interest rate, the bull keep going on, then i will become short term trader ( do not keep any share overnight !) , as i predict the market will crash on November, so i only aim for a few counters like RCECAP, Engtex, Keladi.

Happy Trading.

Mukesh Ambani Becomes World’s Richest Man

India’s Mukesh Ambani, Chairman of Reliance Industries Limited, a company built from scratch by his late father Mr. Dhirubhai Ambani, has becomed the world’s richest man.

Mukesh Ambani has surpassed Bill Gates, Carlos Slim and Warren Buffett, to become the world’s richest man. The strong bull rally witnessed in the Indian stock markets has boosted the market capitalisation of all reliance group companies in which Mukesh Ambani has a very significant stake.

His brother and younger son of Dhirubhai Ambani, Anil Ambani, the chairman of Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group has also forged his way into the top 20 richest billionaires. Anil is likely to make it to the top 10 once Reliance Power comes out with an IPO and gets listed in the stock markets. Mukesh Ambani is the first Indian to make it to the top of the list of richest men in the world.

The five richest people in the world with their net worth
1. Mukesh Ambani ($63.2 billion)

2. Carlos Slim Helu ($62.2993 billion)

3. William (Bill) Gates ($62.29 billion)

4. Warren Buffett ($55.9 billion)

5. Lakshmi Mittal ($50.9 billion)

More story here:
http://www.stockmarketsview.com/mukesh-ambani-becomes-worlds-richest-man/22/

Hmm, i believe once the bull in India end, then the position will be reverse again. But, this has tell you the power of rising Asian.

Bill Gates' High School Speech on The Eleven Rules of Life

RULE 1 Life is not fair - get used to it.

RULE 2 The world won't care about your self-esteem. The world will expect you to accomplish something BEFORE you feel good about yourself.

RULE 3 You will NOT make 40 thousand dollars a year right out of high school. You won't be a vice president with car phone, until you earn both.

RULE 4 If you think your teacher is tough, wait till you get a boss. He doesn't have tenure.

RULE 5 Flipping burgers is not beneath your dignity. Your grandparents had a different word for burger flipping they called it Opportunity.

RULE 6 If you mess up, it's not your parents' fault, so don't whine about your mistakes, learn from them.

RULE 7 Before you were born, your parents weren't as boring as they are now. They got that way from paying your bills, cleaning your clothes and listening to you talk about how cool you are. So before you save the rain forest from the parasites of your parent's generation, try delousing the closet in your own room.

RULE 8 Your school may have done away with winners and losers, but life has not. In some schools they have abolished failing grades and they'll give you as many times as you want to get the right answer. This doesn't bear the slightest resemblance to ANYTHING in real life.

RULE 9 Life is not divided into semesters. You don't get summers off and very few employers are interested in helping you find yourself. Do that on your own time.

RULE 10 Television is NOT real life. In real life people actually have to leave the coffee shop and go to jobs.

RULE 11 Be nice to nerds. Chances are you'll end up working for one.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Today Trading

Sell Keladi 15000 shares @ 0.25, then sell keladi 6000 shares @ 0.285, then sell keladi 6500 shares @ 0.295, Clear all the share.

Why don't ride the momentum? i just feel wan clear shares, that why when selling 15000 shares of keladi it is only moving, quite unlucky, but it might go up again tomorrow, the host has plan for all this long time ago.

Good luck for Keladi share "holders".

Sunday, October 28, 2007

What Can Cause the November Share Market Crash?

1. FED did not lower the interest rate.

2. FED lower the interest rate and Oil price shoot up over 100 USD.

Why oil price will go up? A weaker interest rate make the USD weaker and when value of USD goes down, then oil price that trade in USD will go up.

Better prepare for the crash.

Good luck all.

When to Sell Part 2? Hang Seng Crash on November?

It is interesting to study Hang Seng History as we do have the complete set of data of indicating PE and dividend yield.



I have notice one IMPORTANT things, with PE more than 20 and dividend yield less than or equal 2% at certain month, then market will be collapse/ or having big correction after that particular months.

This rules have been proven on 1973, 1987, 1994, 2000 year where they only have big bull run with low dividend yield.

Hang Seng has enter into November with October month PE more than 20 and and dividend yield less than 2%. This is a WARNING.

Plan : Sell all shares at next week. ( Good day on 31 October )

1973 Feb PE 38.1 Dividend yield 1.87
March PE 31.69 Dividend yield 2.23

1987 September PE 22.35 Dividend yield 1.93
October PE 12.31 Dividend yield 3.48

1994 Jan PE 21.82 Dividend yield 2.07
Feb PE 19.68 Dividend yield 2.28
March PE 15.08 Dividend yield 2.89

2000 Feb PE 26.18 Dividend yield 1.88
March PE 12.33 Dividend yield 2.05

2007 September PE 21.18 Dividend yield 2.04
October PE >21 ( 资料还没出来。不过肯定高过 21 ) Dividend yield < 2.04% ( 资料还没出来。不过肯定底过2%)
November PE ? Dividend yield ?


这只是预测,从hang seng 历史发现的, 我也是希望不会发生。在hang seng历史, 只要PE > 20 和 dividend yield <>21 ( 资料还没出来。不过肯定高过 21 ) Dividend yield <>20 和 dividend yield <>20 和 dividend yield < 2% , 不知中国老有没有本事帮香港逃过这一决?我不敢跟历史作对。只要11月一到, 把所有股卖了。老话一句, 买卖自负。 11 月 股市升更高的话不要怪我。

Dufu , Lngres, MQtech?

Dufu is one of the counter that we should take note.

On recently semi-conductor related company bull run, eg unisem ( from 1.4x to 1.87) , notion ( from 0.4 to 0.465 ), there are some small cap company that did not get involve in it.

Counter like Dufu, Lngres is still stagnant, but we can see another small counter MQtech up 4.44%.

Another one that need highly observe is Mtronic, with high volume recently, and low PE 7, and yet low price 0.185 ( yummy, in bull market ), 52 week high 0.301, then 52 weeks low 0.13. and also Gtronic, 0.285 price now, 52 week high0.440, 52 weeks low 0.235.

However, the concern is the semi con field is in negative cycle, hmm, is there any danger to buy them? US Nasdaq is surging strongly and it will help to boost people to speculate in Mesdaq too.

Ornasteel vs Masteel?

Ornasteel previous 4 Quarter total earning : 24.5 sen, at current price RM1.61 PE = 6.6

Dividend for the previous four quarter - 20 sen, dividend yield = 12.4%

Masteel previous 4 Quarter total earning : 30.75sen, at current price RM1.55 PE = 5

Dividend for the previous four quarter : 2.1 sen, dividend yield = 1.35%

The reason why Ornasteel is able to distribute more dividend is because they have lots of cash in hand and less debt if compare to Masteel. That's make masteel a lower PE when compare to Ornasteel.

But why steel counter at China or India has been favoured by their investor but not Malaysia one? Such a low PE, are they undervalue? Soon they going release their latest quarter report, Let's see is there any rerating of the steel sector.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Time for KLSE to catch up?

KLSE has been laggard since August market correction, now the foreigner has come back :

於週四(10月25日)午後受到外資買盤扶持,使大馬股市綜指全天猛漲1.36%,創下過去3週最大漲幅,直逼1380點關口。


下午約3時開始,在市場預期美國聯儲局將降息激勵下,東南亞區域大部份股市交投情緒轉佳,並在顯著買盤扶持而穩健揚升,包括大馬股市在內,多只藍籌股獲扯購情況下,使馬股綜指以俊俏水平掛收。


全天收市時,馬股綜指漲18.44點,或是1.36%,至1378.27點高水平。富時大馬全股項指數則漲127.87點,或是1.40%,至9281.30點。第二交易板指數則起0.21點,至108.15點。
全天總成交量達15億2893萬6100股,總值18億7547萬2000令吉。


選擇性藍籌股獲得扯高,包括數碼網絡(DIGI,6947)全天漲50仙,至24令吉70仙、吉隆坡甲洞(KLK,2445)漲50仙至14令吉60仙。LCL企業(LCL,7177)也不甘示弱,全天漲40仙,以6令吉35仙掛收。


分析員認為,中國股市擔心起息而大跌,日本股市也出現套利滑落,使一些外資回流其余區域主要股市,使大馬股市創下數周來最高漲勢。


興業資本(RHBCAP,1066)表現不俗,全天起35仙至6令吉35仙。而百盛(PARKSON,5657)也不遑多讓,也漲35仙,至8令吉45仙。


將于傍晚宣佈最新業績的國家能源(TENAGA,5347)受看好,起30仙至9令吉45仙。而種植股老大IOI集團(IOICORP,1961)全天攀25仙,至6令吉55仙。

Hmm, i can smell bull running ..

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

What Buffet Said About China/Hong Kong World Share Market?

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett said investors should be ``cautious'' about China's stocks after the country's benchmark index more than doubled this year.
``We never buy stocks when we see prices soaring,'' Buffett said today in Dalian, northeastern China, where he's visiting a subsidiary of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. ``We buy stocks because we're confident of the company's growth. People should be cautious when they see prices rising.''


Buffett has sold shares of PetroChina Co., which has risen 76 percent this year to become the world's second-biggest company by market value. China's benchmark CSI 300 stock index has climbed 48 percent since May 17, when Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest man, said there ``must be a bubble.''

Buffett is right about China stocks, whose valuations are too high,'' said Wang Zheng, who manages the equivalent of $500 million at the asset management unit of Everbright Securities Co. in Shanghai. ``It doesn't make sense any more to still play in such a market. It's about time to pull out of it.''

For more news please refer here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=al9nArn9qOn0&refer=home

Its time to sell off some more shares after November. Its time to cash out and rest at home, do anything you want, except buy in share again.

Today Trading

Sell Maybulk 400 shares @ 5.05, feel sad when i offload all the maybulk shares, one of the best share in KLSE.

I expect it can go over 5.50 easily but this is not the kind of money that i should earn, volatile market = keep your capital first.

You will never know when US market crash, or Hang Seng crash.

They seems danger to me..

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Hang Seng Index

Hang Seng index has rebound resiliently after recover from yesterday loss, up 3.54% with 1003.23 points to 29376.86.

Wow, with this speed, and without the interfere from US market negative influence, Sure it will climb into 31000!!

I will sell 3k with every 1000 points they increase.

Maybulk will be 1st , then is keladi, then is masteel and finally is pjdev.

Why Pjdev is last? Because they are going to give dividend up to almost 5% at the beginning of December.

Lets hope KLSE index will follow the Hang Seng Trend too.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Today Trading

Today trading - sell Keladi 10000 @ 0.245 shares, sell ornasteel 2000 @ 1.55 shares, Sell plenitude 400 shares @ 2.92

Cash out first in case DJ perform sucks again tonight.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Hang Seng Index History

I believe everyone is interested to know Hang Seng Index History :


At 1973, from May PE 43.26 until 1974 Jan 21.12 the big bull has started cool down.

At 1979, from Dec PE 20 until 1980 August PE 19.96 then small bull end.

At 1987 Jan PE 19.20 until 1987 Sept PE 22.35 then big bull end.

AT 1993 Dec PE 22.64 until 1994 Feb 19.68 then small bull end.

At 1999 April 21.76 until 2000 Feb 26.18 then the techno bull dead.

At 2003 October 19.20 until 2004 Feb 21.73 the small bull end.

At 2007 Sept 21.18 until ? the fierce bull dead.

Do you have any idea this time bull will last for? i saw the shortest time is 3 months before any correction happen. For this year, this is first time the PE more than 21.18, would it last minimum 3 months? or longer time?

But at least we know one things, now Hang Seng is in very bullish condition ( PE > 22 ) and it has been 2 months! Hmn, if counted 3 months since Sept, then Oct , then November, should we start selling by end of November? Or history will change, it will last for 2 months this time, then history going be changed.

How to determine when is time to sell your shares?

Everyone must develop your own system to decide when to take profit and leave market for a while.

Here is some of my new theory that i will practice to help me when to sell in future.

Rules
1. When market has PE more than 20.
2. When market has dividend yield less than 2%
3. When index trend is far away from the 200 MA.
4. take Hang Seng index for above rules.

I will try to add in more rules as to help the exit timing in the best time..

Now Hang Seng index:
1. September PE 21.18, for October it is sure more than 21.18
2. Dividend yield for September is 2.04%, for October it is sure less than 2% but the stats have not come out.
3. Trend is far away from 200MA. ( due to surge of almost 50% durng this 2 months)


The latest Hang Seng index shows that it is 36% higher than the 200 MA, which is quite danger.

Seems like i should sell some shares even at lower profit/ loss ? Let me do more research..and think..

If i decide to sell all on Monday ( sure on minimal lose) , it might prove to be a mistakes, but at least you learn and improve.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Dow Jones tumble 366.94 points (-2.64%)

Dow Jones Tumbles 366.94 points,

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 367 points and closed at the lowest since the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark lending rate Sept. 18. Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. led financial shares to their worst week since 2002 after Wachovia Corp. said loan defaults reduced profit. Energy producers dropped the most in two years.

S&P 500 companies have posted an average profit decline of 0.6 percent in the third quarter, the first drop since 2002, according to Bloomberg data.

Weekly Drop
The S&P 500 fell 3.9 percent this week and the Dow average lost 4.1 percent. The Nasdaq declined 2.9 percent.

More than one-third of the 92 financial companies in the S&P 500 have reported third-quarter results. Their 17 percent average profit drop is the biggest since Bloomberg began tracking quarterly earnings growth in the third quarter of 1997.

Financial firms account for about 19 percent of the S&P 500's value and produced 27 percent of the index's profits last quarter, according to Bloomberg data.

Seems like US recession just begin, with the remaining two third of S&P 500 companies going to release their quarter result, we shall see.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Today trading

Today has did a very bad trading ... sold 3500 shares Rcecap with 0.92 with loss RM70. and buy in keladi at 10000 shares of 0.26 and 7500 shares at 0.255.

Seems like this is a bad decision after find out the Dow Jones is currently down -1.57%.

Either take it easy on Monday ( T+3) or sold it first for safety.

hmm..another hard decision..

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Hong Kong Market Looks Cheap?

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong's most expensive stock market in three years looks cheap to investors at Templeton Asset Management Ltd. and Baring Asset Management Inc.

The Hang Seng Index, dominated by Chinese companies, traded at 19.2 times earnings last week, the highest since March 2004, after the benchmark rallied 41 percent since mid-August

``It's crazy to have that kind of a discount,'' said Mobius, who's buying Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese energy companies, banks and materials producers for the $45 billion he oversees from Singapore

Read more from here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602005&sid=acBKkWR3Z2JM&refer=world_indiceshttp://www.msn.com/

Thats looks crazy, China has been considered a high PE market but they said Hong Kong china-based company looks cheaper when compare to China. And there are 41 percents gain just within 2 months?

Once hang seng is over 30000 point i am going to sell some of my shares to maintain 50% cash 50% shares. ( or maybe lesser)

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Buffet Checkpoint

0. Selling paper and cherry coke -Buffett breathed business since he was a young boy. By the time he was 20 years old in 1950, he had saved $9,800 by selling newspaper and cherry coke.


1. College years - From 1950 to 1956, Buffett perfects his investment style by practicing it again and again; by 1956 he has $140,000.


2. First partnership - In 1956 Buffett forms his first partnership with seven people - his sister Doris, her husband, Aunt Alice, Dr. Thompson, his ex roommate Chuck Peterson, his mother and Dan Moren his lawyer. They altogether put $105K, of which Buffett contributes a whopping $100. Yeah, I did not miss any zeros; it is indeed one with two zeros.


3. The same year he starts two more partnerships, one with physicist Homer Dodge who put in $120K. By the start of 1957 he is managing $300k.


4. Summer of 1957 - Ed Davis, a prominent urologist, put up $100K. By the end of 1957 Buffett is running 5 partnerships totaling $500k.


5. 1958 - Buffett's portfolio soars by 41%, beating the Dow which soars 39%.


6. 1960 - Buffett approaches William Angle, a cardiologist, and asks if he could get 10 doctors to invest $10k each.


7. 1961 - Buffett invests $1 million in Dempster Mill Manufacturing. By 1961 the partnership has gained 251%


8. The first million - At the beginning of 1962, the Buffett partnership has $7.2 million. Of this, $1 million belonged to Buffett. The partnership has 90 people.


9. He merges all partnerships to one and quadruples the minimum investment to $100,000. He also moves his office to Kiewit Plaza.


10. 1963 - Buffett sells Dempster, netting the partnership a $2.3 million profit - page 77.
11. 1963 - Invests in Berkshire Hathaway at $7.60 / share.


12. The partnerships jump 39% in 1963 and 28% in 1964. Buffett is managing $22 million, with his personal net worth being $4 million.


13. By the beginning of 1966, the partnership is worth $44 million, of which Buffett is worth $6.8 million.The partnership had grown 1,156% compared to 122% of Dow.


14. By 1967 the partnership is worth $65 million and his net worth is $10 million.


15. The bulk of his profits until now are derived from American Express (AXP), in which he has invested $13 million and has made a $20 million profit.


16. 1969 - Buffett closes his partnership, worth $100 million, and pockets $25 million.


17. Buffett's partners were later referred to Bill Ruane, a Graham follower and the person setting up the Sequoia Fund.


18. The partnership liquidates all but two of its investments, Berkshire Hathaway and Diversified Retailing.


19. Berkshire and Hathaway were independent textile businesses that merged in 1955 creating Berkshire Hathaway.


20. May 10 1965, Buffett becomes chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Its stock is trading at $18/share.


21. In 1967 he buys National Indemnity for $50/share for total price of $8.6 million


22. In successive years Buffett buys from the float of National Indeminity companies like:
i) Sun Newspaper of Omaha. ii) Rockford Bank.


23. In 1970, with the dissolution of the Buffett Partnership, Buffett becomes 29% owner of Berkshire. Since then he has owned 474,998 shares of Berkshire


24. In 1970 Berkshire's profits were: i) Textiles - $45k ii) Insurance $2.1 million iii) Banking $2.6 million.


25. 1972 - Berkshire's insurance business had a float of $100 million of which only $17 million was invested in stocks.The rest were invested in bonds because Buffett was not able to find any bargains


26. Feb 1973 - Buffett buys 18,600 shares at $27 each of the Washington Post (WPO); when the stock falls to $23 Buffett buys 40,000 more. By October 1973. Berkshire is the largest outside investor of Washington post.


27. Berkshire's share price in early 1974 had dropped from $8 to $40.Even Berkshire's portfolio was sinking. By end of 1973 its portfolio is $40 million with a net cost of $52 million.


28. In 1971 Buffett invests $25 million in See's Candies, by far its biggest investment


29. Early 1975 the SEC interrogates Buffett on charges of manipulating Wesco's (WSC) stock price.


30. In 1975 Buffett merges Berkshire and Diversified, the firm controlled by Munger. Munger gets 2% stock of Berkshire and becomes its vice chairman.


31. In April 1976 Berkshire invests $4 million in GEICO when its stock price was just above $2. This was first of the series of purchases that will last till 1994 when he completely buys GEICO.


32. 1977 - Berkshire Hathaway's share price is at $132 and Buffett's net worth is $70 million


33. 1978 - Evening News, one of Buffett's businesses, loses $2.9 million pre tax.


34. In 1982 Courier Express it closed because of heavy losses. Evening News became the only local newspaper of Buffalo and its name is changed to Buffalo News. It becomes a goldmine for Buffett. The newspaper earned $19 million in its first year without competition. By the late eighties the Buffalo News will earn $40 million/year , way more than what Buffett had invested.


35. 1981 - Berkshire trades at $470.


36. 1982 - Berkshire trades at $750 - page 242.


37. By 1983 Berkshire's investments are worth $1.3 billion.


38. September 1983 - Berkshire trades at $1,245.In 1965 Dow was at 933 and Berkshire at $18.By 1983 Berkshire is at $1,310 and the Dow is at 1,259. Buffett's net worth is $620 million


39. 1985 - Berkshire trades at $2,600.


40 By 1987 Berkshire trades at $3,450. Buffett had sold all the shares of his portfolio except cap cities, GEICO and Washington Post.


41. Black Monday era - October 19,1987 is considered black Monday, which triggers a series of stock market collapses all over the world. By the end of October, the Dow had lost 22%. A week before the fall Berkshire traded at $4,230. On October 16 it trades at $3,890 and on October 19 it falls to $3,170.


42. By spring of 1989 Berkshire has acquired $1.02 billion of Coca Cola (KO) (7% of the company) at an average price of $10.96


43. After investing in Coca Cola Buffett becomes its director.


44. In March 1989 Berkshire is trading at $4,800 and by the end of 1989 it is trading at $8,000.


45. Berkshire trades at $8,750 in September 1989


46. 1990 - Buffett buys 10% of Wells Fargo (WFC) bank.The reason being that Carl Reichardt, the chairman of the bank who was famous for slashing costs , had once sold his jet to cut costs and Buffett appreciated this gesture


47. Buffett's investment in USAir (LCC) is his worst investment.


48. After the debacle of 1990. By August 1991 Berkshire is again at $8,800.


49. November 1992 Berkshire is a $10k stock; by the end of 1993 it is $16,325; by 1995 it is 32,100 and by 1996 it is $40k. The net revenues in 1995 are $4.56 billion and net income is $795 million.


50. Still going strong in the 21st century: Even though Berkshire's insurance business faced some huge losses in recent hurricanes and floods, the company's revenues have increased from $74 billion in 2004 to $98 billion in 2006.The net income has increased from $7.3 billion to $11 billion. The book value has increased from $85 billion to $108 billion in the corresponding time period. Wall Street has handsomely rewarded the master investor's baby by increasing its stock price from $84k in July 2005 to $110k in Jul-2007. A 30% gain in two years, which I would give an A+ considering that it is a mega large cap company (Berkshire's market cap is around $170 billion as of July 23,2007).


Berkshire Share Price at a Glance
May-1965 $18

Mar-1984 $1,300

Jan-1990 $8,300

Jan-1996 $32,000

Jan-2002 $74,800

Jan-2006 $100,000

Jul-2007 $110,000

Berkshire Hathaway's price has increased by 6,111 times in 42 years; this means $1,000 invested with Berkshire stock in 1965 would have become $6.1 million by now...

So, if a person asked you give one thousands today and he will pass back you 6.1millions 42 years later would you love to do this? Yes, sure i love.

But there is only person can make it, Warren Buffet. The only one.

Today Trading

Buy RCEcap back at 0.94 @ 3500 shares.

Volume is high today but only up merely 4%.

Maybulk rose pass RM5 to RM5.10 but go back to 4.94 due to profit taking.

Queue to sell RM5.10 this morning but it only happen on evening. Too bad, this stock is still kept on hand.

Some "predictors" is telling me tomorrow will be big correction, maybe a disaster :)

Let's sleep first. and wake up and see tomorrow. I do hope the bull can last until end of year, or maybe Chinese New Year, at least i have chance to dispose at higher price for my masteel and ornasteel.

Monday, October 15, 2007

When is the time to sell?

I have been thinking this questions quite long time, Malaysia bull market has started since October 2006, and last until now, which is around 1 years. While other country might last longer.

The bull cant keep going, i believe we need to set some kind of benchmark to indicate when we should start selling.

I think once Hang Seng breach 30000 points , or maybe before Chinese New Year on Feb, i can start to offload some of my shares.

The very bad things is Malaysia did not benefit alot from this bull run, compare to Singapore and Hong Kong.

Keep more cash for the bear. Maybe time to switch to other country.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Us Stocks Financial Week

The next 2 week we will see US companies releasing their financial report.

A good result might send Dow Jones to another record high.

Here are some of the companies scheduled to report:

Monday: Citigroup and Mattel (MAT, news, msgs).

Tuesday: Intel (INTC, news, msgs), IBM, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, news, msgs) and Yahoo (YHOO, news, msgs). Closely watched will be earnings from Wells Fargo (WFC, news, msgs) and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA, news, msgs), two important players in the mortgage markets.

Wednesday: , JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs), Coca-Cola (KO, news, msgs) and United Technologies (UTX, news, msgs).

Thursday: Pfizer (PFE, news, msgs), Google and Bank of America (BAC, news, msgs). At the same time, several important government economic reports will hit the markets.


Friday: 3M (MMM, news, msgs), Caterpillar (CAT, news, msgs), Honeywell International (HON, news, msgs), Schlumberger (SLB, news, msgs) and Wachovia (WB, news, msgs).

Lets hope bull will keep on running.

Latest Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +182 ,

Many company have upgraded Maybulk to buy above RM5.15.

Seems like it can break RM5 very soon.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Why buy Keladi?

Why want to buy keladi?

1st: consistent net profit over 4 years , 2007 has 15million s, 2008 2Q has 12++ millions.

2nd: with 2Q ( 13 millions )0.017eps, let say a 0.025eps for this full year, the PE @ 0.25 is around 10, which is a bit high, but since they has net cash 29 millions on hand, translate to the 0.037 cash per share, which is consider cash rich.

3rd: they just paid a 1.1sen dividend not long time ago, translating to 4.4% (net dividend ), which is quite high among property stock. ( Another high dividend yield is Pjdev).

4th: They are housing developer is in Kedah area, which might benefit from the Northern Corridor Economic Region.

5th: Obviouly the property counter has not moved for this small bull run, but i can see plenitude is started to move from 2.84 to today 3.02, once the counter start to run, then we should profit much.

6th: Market want to fry counter below RM1 !!

7th: this counter has volume, and you can see the the price seems like controlling by some one, either they sell large lots at 0.25, or either they queue many to buy at 0.24 or 0.245.

Maybe my analyst is wrong, but this counter has the fundamental. So no worry you will lose big money.

But since this is the trading play, don't put too much on it. i have allocated big percentage of my portfolio money into property stocks due to they haven run.

Today trading Selling Maybulk on strength

Just sold maybulk on strength,

4.6 @ 500 shares, then 4.76 @ 400 shares, still keep 400shares on hand.

Then swap some of the money to pjdev buy at 0.915 2000 shares.

Monday, October 8, 2007

Today Trading

Just sold 3500 shares of RCEcap @ 0.925, and bought keladi 20000 shares @ 0.25 this morning.

Saturday, October 6, 2007

Result and share price



Above table teach us a lesson, after market drop, if the quarter report for some company did show some improvement compare to previous quarter or last year quarter, please buy them, Their share price will go back eventually. :)

and you can notice one thing, those property stock still very far from the peak, seems like the property counter is not moving yet. when it move, better switch money to property stocks. Plan to purchase plenitude.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Bought Pjdev @ 0.925

add in another 1500 shares of Pjdev @ 0.925.

maybe consider plenitude once it drop below 2.9.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Sold metrok, melewar

Just sold Metrok 1200share @ 1.56, then sold melewar @ 1.55,

The purpose is to cash out some money.

Queuing Sunway Infrakstruture @ 0.2 but too bad did not get it, it go up to 0.235 today, uup 24%,

The purpose i queue for this stock is because a friend work inside sunway said that they have sold the Suninfra to third party ( government.. rumours..). This is good news for suninfra and also sunway group. You cannot get suninfra, maybe can go for sunway group.

Not sure whether i have chance to get some lots with the price i want tomorrow.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Maybulk got room to go up??

Definitely,check it out at http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +29 9566

Omg, it come to 9566.

1 month ago is Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +140 8410

seems like it just rise, :) don't sell Maybulk yet!!